Markets love clarity. On March 10, investors thought they finally got it.
President Donald Trump told ABC News that the U.S. military campaign against Iran was "very complete, pretty much" over, adding that Iran's ability to wage war had been "severely diminished."
Shortly after, he posted on Truth Social that the Iran war would end "very soon."
Investors responded immediately. Stocks reversed sharply, oil prices plunged and Bitcoin surged past $71,000. But while markets rallied on the headline, one corner of the financial world remains far less certain: prediction markets.
On Polymarket, the crypto -based betting platform, traders currently give the conflict only a 44% chance of ending by March 31 , a sharp jump from 11% just one day earlier, but still far from a confident conclusion.
In other words, Wall Street may be celebrating but the people betting real money on geopolitical outcomes aren't ready to call the war over yet.
Related: Trump wants Iran's 'unconditional surrender'
Polymarket 'night traders' say the market isn't convinced
While headlines triggered a rally across stocks and crypto, several active traders on Polymarket said the betting markets are still pricing in significant uncertainty.
Three traders who described themselves as regular "night traders" on the platform, meaning they trade geopolitical contracts during low-liquidity overnight hours told TheStreet Roundtable they believe the market reaction to Trump's comments may be premature.
One trader using the pseudonym "BlockOracle" said prediction markets tend to react more cautiously than traditional financial markets.
"Markets love headlines, but prediction markets price probabilities,"BlockOracle said. "A political statement isn't the same thing as a ceasefire."
Another trader who goes by "CryptoNomad" said traders are watching military movements.
"Trump saying it's almost over doesn't change the fact that Iran hasn't officially agreed to anything,"CryptoNomad said. "Until there's a formal agreement or ceasefire confirmation, traders will keep pricing in risk."
A third trader said many bettors believe the conflict could continue in smaller regional escalations even if large-scale operations slow down.
"People assume wars end with one headline,"DeltaSatoshi said. "But markets are pricing the possibility that this drags into April or even June."
Polymarket contracts suggest the war is unlikely to end immediately. Traders currently assign 44% odds that the conflict ends by March 31, just 11% odds of an official declaration by March 15, 73% odds of resolution by April 30, and 82% odds by June 30.
Meanwhile, contracts betting on whether a third country will strike Iran before the end of the month dropped to 45% after Trump's comments.
In total, more than $580 million has been traded across Polymarket and Kalshi on contracts tied to the Iran conflict, underscoring how prediction markets have become a real-time barometer for geopolitical risk.
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Markets stage a rapid rebound as S&P 500 flips to gains
The market reaction to Trump's comments was swift and dramatic.
The S&P 500 staged a textbook V-shaped reversal, swinging from losses of roughly 1% to finish the day up 0.83% at 6,795.99.
The broader picture, however, shows that the Iran conflict has still weighed heavily on global equities over the past month. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF ( VOO ) remains down 1.99%, while the Invesco QQQ Trust ( QQQ ) has managed a modest 0.61% gain.
International markets were hit significantly harder during the escalation phase. Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 10%, India's Nifty fell 5%, and South Korea's Kospi plunged more than 16%. By comparison, U.S. markets declined just over 3% since the conflict began on February 28.
That relative resilience is partly explained by America's energy independence.
According to J.P. Morgan Private Bank analysts , the United States imports the majority of its oil from Canada and Mexico, with only about 4% coming from Saudi Arabia.
The country has also become the world's largest net oil exporter, insulating it from the worst of Middle Eastern supply disruptions.
Oil shock triggers historic strategic reserve intervention
Energy markets experienced some of the most dramatic moves of the entire crisis.
As tensions escalated, crude oil prices briefly surged above $100 per barrel, triggering what is shaping up to be the largest coordinated strategic reserve release in history.
The G7 and International Energy Agency (IEA) announced the release of up to 400 million barrels of oil, representing nearly 30% of the IEA's 1.2 billion-barrel emergency stockpile, according to reports from CNBC and OilPrice.com .
Oil prices plunged 11% within an hour of the announcement and fell another 5% after Trump's comments about the war ending. Crude is now trading around $101 to $103 per barrel, according to the Yahoo Finance dashboard.
More on U.S.-Iran War:
Bitcoin price rallies past $71,000
Crypto markets moved quickly on the de-escalation headlines.
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed above $71,400, rising 4.06% in the past 24 hours as Bitcoin investors responded to easing geopolitical tensions and renewed ETF inflows.
Ether (ETH) traded around $2,060, up 3.95%, while Solana (SOL) gained 3.41% to $86.81. XRP jumped 4.82% and Dogecoin (DOGE) surged 7%, bringing the total memecoins sector to a market cap of roughly $32 billion.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Signal Institutional Demand Is Back
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $167 million in net inflows on Monday, according to CoinGlass . During the week of March 2–6, Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $568 million, marking the second consecutive week of gains after months of persistent outflows, per Farside Investors data.
Ether ETFs recorded $23.56 million in inflows, while Solana ETFs saw $24.05 million. Digital asset investment products overall attracted $619 million in net inflows last week, even as the Iran crisis dominated headlines. Bitcoin accounted for $521 million of that total, while XRP saw $30.3 million in outflows.
Related: Are crypto ETFs actually hurting bitcoin and ethereum adoption?
Why Bitcoin is behaving differently this time
Some analysts believe Bitcoin 's resilience during the crisis reflects a fundamental shift in how institutional investors view the asset.
Anthony Pompliano, CEO of Professional Capital Management, argued this week that Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like "global insurance" rather than just a speculative trade. Unlike oil or equities, Bitcoin has no direct physical exposure to geopolitical conflict zones.
During the worst of the crisis, Bitcoin mostly held between $67,000 and $70,000, briefly dipping to around $61,000–$65,000 before recovering sharply — a pattern that echoes gold's traditional safe-haven behavior more than a risk-on tech asset.
Still, not everyone is convinced the rally has legs.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen warned that Bitcoin may be following patterns seen in previous U.S. midterm election years. In those cycles — 2014, 2018, and 2022 — Bitcoin typically rallied in early March before weakening through April and May. Cowen says the $65,000–$66,000 range now represents critical support, per his analysis on Bankless .
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern. Resistance sits between $72,000 and $75,000, while ascending support lies around $65,000–$66,000.
A breakout above the resistance zone could push Bitcoin's price toward $80,000–$85,000, while a breakdown below February's lows would likely signal the next phase of a broader bear market.
For now, Bitcoin remains about 11% above its Supertrend support at $61,089, suggesting the broader bullish structure remains intact, at least for now.
Related: Oil rally on Iran tensions deepens Bitcoin traders' woes
Washington pushes back
Several U.S. senators, led by Adam Schiff, have urged the CFTC to ban contracts tied to war or death events after markets began trading on the assassination of Iran 's former leader.
Senator Merkley introduced the End Prediction Market Corruption Act , which would bar government officials from trading on crypto -based platforms, a significant escalation in regulatory pressure on the blockchain betting industry.
Polymarket previously removed a contract tied to the possibility of a nuclear detonation after it attracted $850,000 in trading volume.
Blockchain analysts have also flagged potential insider trading , with six newly created accounts reportedly profiting approximately $1 million by correctly betting on the February 28 strike date just hours before it happened, as reported by CNN .
Related: NYSE owner acquires major stake in Polymarket
This story was originally published by TheStreet on Mar 10, 2026, where it first appeared in the Trading News & Analysis section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
