Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg, is among the few market analysts who got the gold market right toward the beginning of 2025.
McGlone predicted in mid-March last year that gold's price could reach $4,000 per oz in a matter of time and the bullion indeed surpassed the mark during early October 2025. Last month, the precious metal hit a record high of $4,549.
On Jan. 1, 2026, the senior analyst revealed his market predictions for the upcoming year in a long X post and the picture he paints is hardly pleasant.
Related: Analyst eyes 'calm before storm' as gold and silver hit record highs
Treasury bonds to dominate, not gold
Gold's historic rally—when viewed against the decline in crude oil's price—was a warning, McGlone said.
While the precious metals like gold and silver benefited from inflation fears, they could now face "went up-too-much" risks in 2026, he warned.
McGlone proposed that gold could pass the relay baton to the U.S. Treasury bonds. These bonds could outperform gold and reclaim their role as a defensive asset.
Down year for stock market
The U.S. stock market is headed for a third down year since 2008, the analyst warned.
Among the best ways to gauge the health of the American stock market is by analyzing the direction of the S&P 500 . It is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 leading publicly listed companies.
While a 10% gain in the benchmark could feel underwhelming due to obvious anticipation, a 10% loss could create opportunities for options traders, McGlone said.
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Trump faces 'similarly poor timing' as Depression-era Hoover
As per McGlone, 2026 could be a damaging year for U.S. President Donald Trump as he faces a "similarly poor timing" as Herbert Hoover.
The tenure of Hoover, the 31st president of the U.S., began from March 4, 1929, to March 4, 1933. It was dominated by the Wall Street crash of 1929 and the ensuing Great Depression. Amid deep unpopularity, he decisively lost the presidential reelection to Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932.
McGlone's comparison of Trump and Hoover paints an unpleasant picture of the U.S. economy.
In fact, Trump's handling of the presidential role earned 56% disapproval against 39% approval in a recent The Economist/YouGov poll .
Bitcoin already peaked
Cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), have already peaked and the king coin is more likely to decline further to $50,000 than surpass the $100,000 level, McGlone predicted in the post.
After years of wealth creation, crypto could lead the next post-inflation deflationary phase, the analyst argued.
What he is suggesting is that the inflation forced traders to chase Bitcoin and other digital assets due to their view of BTC as a hedge asset against inflation. But as inflation cools, traders would retreat from such assets, and their prices would tank.
The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index fell 19% in 2025, he reminded his followers.
2026 to favor tactical traders
However, 2026 could provide an opportunity to tactical traders who are responsive, can sense the shifting dynamics, and are quick to take action, McGlone said.
In 2026, big, long-term bets may not win, but tactical traders could shine, he suggested.
Related: Cardano founder predicts Bitcoin could hit $250K by 2026 — Is it realistic?
This story was originally published by TheStreet on Jan 2, 2026, where it first appeared in the MARKETS section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
