The 2Q reporting season is in full swing. Many companies have knocked it out of the park, delivering earnings and revenue numbers that were well over expectations. Meanwhile, we have been looking at the early trends and, as usual, there are companies increasing guidance. Raising guidance is one of our Investing Themes for the second half of 2026. We view management's ability to raise guidance consistently as a catalyst for possible market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. It's even harder for companies to lift guidance during uncertain economic times, as vision is murky. This is especially true now, as the war in the Middle East drags on. Wall Street is also pondering a new Federal Reserve chairman, one with a different view about forward-looking guidance (or in this case, a lack thereof). A good number of companies already have increased guidance in this earnings cycle, so we are putting out a first round of companies that are in Argus' Fundamental Universe of Coverage and that made the grade.

Based in Calabasas Hills, California, The Cheesecake Factory operates a chain of casual dining restaurants under The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, and Flower Child, and a collection of FRC brands for a total of about 360 restaurants. It also has 36 The Cheesecake Factory restaurants that operate internationally under licensing agreements. In addition to restaurants, CAKE operates two bakeries that produce cheesecakes and other baked products for the company's restaurants and other foodservice operators, retailers, and distributors. The company has 48,000 employees.

The FOMC kept the fed funds target rate at 3.5% to 3.75% on Wednesday, but there were three dissenting votes from members who pushed for a hike. The probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 16 meeting jumped to 63% from 56%, which doesn't seem like a big deal. But investors didn't like it and the market cascaded lower in the last hour of trading. The S&P 500 hit an intraday high of 7,451 around 3:00 pm -- but it was straight down from there. The index fell 1.5% on the day. But, more importantly, it broke down from its triangle. The QQQ fell 2% and broke its triangle on July 17. Investors also disliked the almost-7% rebound in WTI, moving it back up to $84.60/barrel while Brent jumped almost 8% to $90.50/barrel. The continued carnage in chip stocks also didn't help market sentiment, as second-quarter results from South Korean memory-chip giant SK Hynix (SKHY) failed to exceed lofty expectations. The stock recently started trading in the U.S. with an IPO price at $149. SKHY blasted to an intraday high of $195 on July 14 and finished the session on Wednesday at $127. The VanEck Semi ETF (SMH $504) declined almost 5% and has given back 25% since its June 22 closing high. The next piece of support is a 61.8% retracement of the April-June rally, which targets $478. The rising 200-day will be near $460 in a couple of weeks. Despite the depth of the de-cline, the ETF still has not cycled into daily oversold territory. But it is getting close, with the 14-day relative strength index at 33%. The SMH could lose its 21-week exponential for the first time since February 2025, having been above this key average since May 2025.

Another spike in the price of crude oil (WTI) and ever-higher rates across the yield curve knocked stocks again on Monday. And let's not forget that the continued carnage in the memory and storage semiconductors must have aggressive investors quite skittish about how much more downside they might endure. WTI skyrocketed over 9% to close just above $78/barrel while Brent surged 10% to $83.40/barrel. WTI has a clear shot at $86, which is the start of chart resistance, the falling 21-day exponential average, and an initial 38.2% retracement of the decline since the intraday high on April 7. For Brent, there is little chart resistance until the high $80s/low $90s.