Anthropic’s IPO Could Be Huge. But SpaceX Shows Why Valuation Matters
On June 12, Space Exploration Technologies(NASDAQ:SPCX) went public and set a new record for the largest IPO ever. That record might not last for much longer. Anthropic, an artificial intelligence (AI) leader, has officially filed for an IPO, and there is a good chance that once all is said and done, it will take SpaceX's crown as the biggest on record.
But should investors be sitting on the edge of their seats, anxiously waiting to get in on Anthropic as soon as the company goes public? SpaceX's four months as a publicly traded corporation teach us why that might not be the best idea.
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Giving credit where credit is due
First, let's look into what Anthropic does and how the company has performed. It is the company behind Claude, a family of large language models (LLMs). Anthropic offers access to several products, including Claude Code, an AI coding assistant, among others. The popularity of Anthropic's products has soared.
The company already boasts more than 40 million customers overall. Among these, the AI leader has many clients that contributed more than $100,000 in sales over the trailing 12-month period. The number of clients on this list grew from about 20 at the end of 2023 to more than 11,900 as of September.
For those keeping score at home, that's a more than 59,400% increase over about three years. Anthropic also has more than 1,900 clients with TTM revenue above $1 million. Naturally, the company's total revenue growth has been impressive as well. Through the first six months of 2026, the company recorded revenue of $16.3 billion, up 1,300% compared to the year-ago period.
Furthermore, the business's economics seem to be improving. While Anthropic remains unprofitable, revenue is growing much faster than expenses. In the first half of the year, total operating expenses reached almost $17 billion, up about 415% year over year. The net loss of $80.7 billion worsened by 523% from the comparable period of the previous fiscal year.
And most of that loss was due to non-cash fair value charges on convertible notes, driven by Anthropic's soaring value. If revenue growth continues to significantly outpace expenses, Anthropic could eventually turn a profit. And there are good reasons to believe sales growth could maintain a solid upward trajectory. Anthropic argues that those it calls knowledge workers produced more than $40 trillion in economic value in 2025.
Given that Anthropic's products aim to make these workers more productive, the company's total addressable market in the AI industry could be massive.
Here is the problem
Anthropic could price its IPO near $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion, according to some reports. At the high end, that would give the company a price-to-sales ratio of about 101.5, based on its TTM revenue as of June 30. That's exceptionally high, and it would reflect the market's confidence in the company's ability to tap into a large AI opportunity. That's where the example of SpaceX can be instructive.
The space company has had fairly high valuation metrics since it became public. Many investors are excited about SpaceX's pioneering work with reusable rockets, its leadership in space launches, its significant headway in its higher-margin connectivity segment, and its promising AI-related ventures.
Since going public, SpaceX has made progress with its next-gen rocket, Starship, which is central to many of its long-term ambitions. It has also added more AI compute deals to its portfolio, while its connectivity business remains strong. Yet, shares are trading at $143 each as of writing.
That's above the $135 IPO price, but it's below the company's market debut of $150 and well below the $161 level at the end of its first day on the market. The market had already factored in SpaceX's progress across the company's business. So, the work the company has accomplished in recent months has not led to a particularly strong stock market performance.
SpaceX may still deliver excellent long-term returns, but for long-term investors, buying the stock shortly after the IPO wasn't necessarily the best idea. The same could be true for Anthropic. There's no need to rush to buy Anthropic's shares. The company looks highly promising, but the valuation might be too high, or it might not be. Either way, waiting several months (or even years) before purchasing shares isn't the worst idea. This could mean foregone returns, but that's the occasional price of disciplined long-term investing.
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Prosper Junior Bakiny has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .
Anthropic's IPO Could Be Huge. But SpaceX Shows Why Valuation Matters was originally published by The Motley Fool
