Anthropic Just Took a Big Step Toward Its Public Debut. Here's What You Need to Know.
Anthropic, the company behind the Claude family of AI models, has been one of the most anticipated IPOs in years. There has been speculation that it could break records set earlier this year by SpaceX(NASDAQ:SPCX) for valuation, the amount of money raised in the offering, or both.
Investors finally got some of the details they've been waiting for. Anthropic's latest draft prospectus indicates that the company and some of its existing investors plan to sell 825 million shares at a range of $70 to $78 per share.
Missed AI's "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 16x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we're only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »
Here's what the price range tells us about Anthropic's valuation, when the stock could start trading, and what else it means for investors.
Image source: Getty Images.
The offering
At $70 to $78 a share, the IPO would raise $57.75 billion to $64.35 billion. It's worth noting that not all of that money goes to Anthropic , as 23.65 million shares (roughly 3% of the total) are being sold by existing shareholders.
Anthropic also lined up a separate $26 billion private placement with seven tech heavyweights, including Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA), Alphabet's(NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google, Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT), and T aiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(NYSE:TSM). Including the placement, Anthropic could bring in as much as $90.4 billion. This would surpass the roughly $85.7 billion SpaceX raised.
It's also worth noting that this range is already a revision. A day earlier, a version of the filing sent to bankers showed about 867 million shares at $70 to $80.
Plus, underwriters will have the option to buy up to 123.75 million additional shares, which could add nearly $10 billion to the amount raised, based on the high end of the price range.
Anthropic's valuation
Based on about 16.9 billion fully diluted shares implied by Anthropic's amended filing, the range works out to roughly $1.19 trillion to $1.32 trillion. Once you add the new IPO shares and the shares going to the cornerstone investors, my estimate rises to about $1.27 trillion to $1.41 trillion.
For context, Anthropic was valued at $965 billion in its private funding round in May, so the IPO range is about 32% to 46% higher. But it's well below the $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation reported by The Wall Street Journal in October, before the tech sell-off that followed the midterm elections cooled investors' appetite. SpaceX's IPO valued that company at more than $1.7 trillion, so as things stand now, Anthropic isn't likely to set a new valuation record.
Calculating the price-to-sales ratio
One thing we can do after the latest version of Anthropic's S-1 is to start calculating some valuation metrics to help determine how cheap or expensive the stock could be.
The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio compares a company's market value with its revenue, and it's one of the most useful yardsticks for a company that isn't consistently profitable yet. Anthropic generated $17.0 billion of revenue in the third quarter, up 47% from the second quarter. Annualize that, and you get about $68 billion, which puts Anthropic at roughly 19 to 21 times sales at the IPO range.
That's expensive by most standards, but not outrageous for a company growing this fast. Anthropic's revenue in the first half of 2026 was $16.3 billion, up from $1.2 billion in the same period a year earlier. If it keeps growing anywhere near that pace, today's multiple will look much lower in hindsight.
Of course, growth like this rarely lasts. Anthropic also swung back to a $567 million operating loss in the third quarter, after reporting its first operating profit in the second quarter.
When will the stock start trading?
Anthropic's roadshow, the series of meetings where management pitches the stock to big institutional investors, is underway this week. Shares could start trading on the Nasdaq as soon as late next week, according to multiple sources.
We don't know the exact date yet. But companies usually publish a price range when the roadshow begins, roughly one to two weeks before the IPO prices. The final price is generally set the evening before the first trade, and it can come in above, within, or below the range, depending on demand. Anthropic has already trimmed its range once, so I wouldn't treat $70-$78 as final.
What else this changes
A few other things stand out to me. The cornerstone investors are also among Anthropic's largest suppliers and partners, signaling confidence in the company but potentially deepening conflicts of interest. Anthropic's IPO will also be the first major test of AI valuations since the recent tech sell-off, so its reception could set the tone for other AI companies hoping to go public. And Alphabet and Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) both already own stakes in Anthropic, which will soon have a public market price.
The bottom line
Having said all that, the price range gives investors something concrete to evaluate for the first time. At roughly 20 times annualized sales, Anthropic isn't cheap, but its valuation is more reasonable than the $2 trillion figure that was floating around just a few weeks ago.
It's also worth noting that the actual IPO price doesn't necessarily have to fall in this range, especially if interest is high. It's not uncommon for popular IPOs to end up pricing shares above the high end of the stated range.
Missed AI's "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 14x Bigger
Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005.
But according to our analysts, we're only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout, a massive technology build-out that Google's CEO says could be more profound than fire or electricity.
While everyone watches the chip designers, one "backbone" company provides the critical technology that Nvidia and AMD literally cannot function without. We've detailed this under-the-radar player in our new AI Playbook.
Matt Frankel, CFP® has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Space Exploration Technologies, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .
Anthropic Just Took a Big Step Toward Its Public Debut. Here's What You Need to Know. was originally published by The Motley Fool
