00:00
Ken
So we've identified 3 trillion dollars of announced projects since 2020. Uh that's up 86% since January of this year. That might not be too surprising to a lot of people, but I think what is interesting is that construction on these projects are also up 70% plus in in that same time frame, right? So, while there are valid concerns around power constraints and moratorium challenges, we're seeing real capital get deployed into the ground today. And we think there's, you know, that suggests that we're still in the early innings of a multi-year infrastructure cycle.
00:52
Speaker B
856 billion of projects exposed to moratoriums or other hurdles and and that looks like, Ken, about 39% of projects that that haven't started construction. I get, does that, do you see that and and does that make you at all sort of more guarded or cautious about the forecast?
01:17
Ken
Yeah, no, it's a good question. Look, I mean, clearly, I think moratorium should be and will be a near-term watch item for investors, but we don't think that it's a thesis-breaking issue as of now, right? So, you're right, about 39% of the investments that have been announced but not yet started construction are currently exposed to a mandated pause. At first glance, that sounds like a high number, right? But I think there's a couple of caveats here. First, you know, we would point out that almost 90% of these moratoriums that we're tracking are less than a year in duration. 40% of that is less than six months long. So these are delays, not cancellations. And then secondly, Texas with the ERCOT audit, the statewide delay, that's about half of that exposure, right? So we think there's likely some projects in there that'll be considered behind the meter and potentially, uh, you know, not subject to the delay and that could support some long-term upside uh as we go through the end of this year and into next year. Typically when you see a company's put capital into the ground, the risk of or the uh the risk of a project being substantially delayed or all out canceled tends to be pretty minimal, minimal throughout a cycle unless there's a huge cyclical hiccup like a an impending recession. We don't think that there's any suggestion that we're, you know, seeing that or a big cliff coming ahead.