September has been the worst month going back to World War II, posting an average decline as well as being the only month that has seen the S&P fall more frequently than it rose. Every other month, the batting average was better than 50-50. Um, as to why, well, a lot of people are coming back to uh the office. A lot of budgets tend to be uh examined for the coming year. We find that um investors still are looking toward the end of the current year and are looking to take possibly some profits. September is also a um a uh window dressing quarter, uh that a lot of mutual funds have their fiscal years ending in October. So, basically, they want to get rid of the dogs, they want to show, put their best foot forward and only show those companies that have been doing well.

And this isn't just, you know, any September, Sam, of course, we're in this, you know, midterm election year. How, if at all does that play into this?

Well, interestingly enough, it's just as bad. Uh basically, midterm election years have a lot more volatility. Uh on average, the full year has seen less than a 4% advance and has the worst drawdowns on average down 18%. Uh that's for the full year. For September itself, uh it is the second worst performing month of the year. Also posting a a decline as well as falling more frequently than it has risen.

And something that I've been reading, people saying that if we have a positive August, then that improves the performance for September. Well, not the data that I've looked at. Uh actually even following a positive August, September continues to do poorly, negative returns and negative frequency of advance.

Now, some might be listening, Sam, some viewers and think, okay, well, seasonality, uh, Sam Sam knows his stuff as always. But what about earnings? I mean, right, earnings have been so impressive, corporate profits have been so strong. Does that sort of earnings growth, could that shield us? Could that protect us from some of this, Sam?

Well, that's certainly a possibility. And the reason that I show people uh the market's return uh from a seasonal perspective and warn about September is not because I'm bearish at heart, but rather forewarned is forearmed. If you're aware that we traditionally have challenging periods in a particular month, well then you're less likely to let your emotions become your portfolio's worst enemy. And you're absolutely right. Second quarter earnings were expected to be up by 21% when in fact now they're up more than 50%. Now, don't go firing all of those analysts who made those forecasts, uh because I think many of the companies themselves were surprised with how well they did. And it was not just tech, not just AI, all 11 sectors in the S&P saw upward revisions to their Q2 uh Q2 earnings.