The Stock Market Has Boomed After the Last 19 Midterms. Whether Trump Wins or Loses on Tuesday, Wednesday Could be the Day to Buy

Is it time to buy stocks on Wednesday? Well, history says so. I'm Eric Bleecker with 24/7 Wall Street and midterms are coming on Tuesday. With current prediction markets pointing to large gains for Democrats in both the House and Senate. But regardless of the outcome, history has shown right now may be a great time to buy stocks. Here are the reasons, compliments of Ryan Dietrick, the chief market strategist at Carson Wealth Management.

First up, we see that November is the best month of the year on average since 19 uh 50. It it's been great for stock returns, whether you look all the way back to the post World War II era, the past 20 years, the past 10 years, or in midterm years themselves. Uh you can see that very clearly on the chart that November has just been a great time to buy stocks. But here's the real whopper and something more specific.

If we look at November through April, across the past 19 midterm years, we have had positive returns. That's right. Looking at the post World War II era in 19 out of 19 midterm years, there have been positive returns across the six-month space and also not showing in this chart, but positive returns across the next year with an average return across the six months of 14.8%.

And finally, one last chart, we can see that November through April is historically the best six months of the year for stock returns at 6.9%.

Now, a few caveats that are necessary here. You can always cherry pick through the market and be able to find signals that aren't necessarily indicative of what's going on in the market today. For example, the market is currently dominated by discussion about geopolitics that are unique to today, such as the conflict in Iran, and also market factors that are unique to today, such as the AI buildout.

But there are some positive macro signals to be looking out for. First of all, the market is significantly cheaper than it's been recently. We see the S&P 500's PE ratio having been declined. and while technology stocks are generally seen as in a bubble in terms of valuation, they are now in the 50th percentile of where they trade at across the past 30 years. while other sectors of the market, such as consumer staples and also defensives like healthcare and also materials

are trading at some of their highest measures across the past 30 years. Also, the magnificent seven, which has been responsible for many of the market's biggest gains in recent years, has actually legged the market this year. Only one single magnificent seven stock, which is Apple, which has lower exposure to the AI build out, is actually outperforming the S&P 500. and I should note too that corporate earnings continue to be outstanding.

and one positive that we're seeing is stocks, again, outside this narrow group of technology stocks seeing strong earnings growth across 2026. So a lot of reasons to believe that there could be a rebound coming up as investors took their foot off the gas in uh October seeing extreme dele uh de-grossing from hedge funds and also moving out of riskier assets in front of midterms.

If the scenario is that we are in a market that's still fundamentally has room to run as AI spending continues and the underlying economy improves in 2027, we could very easily see this ratio go for 20. But the key point here is that while many people may let whichever side does better than expectations on Tuesday, become the primary reason to either buy into the market or sell out of the market.

History has shown that regardless of which party wins midterms have been an excellent time to buy stocks. I'm Eric Bleeker with 24/7 Wall Street and that's your check in on post midterm stock performance. Make sure to check into 24/7 for all the biggest news in the markets.