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Why it's a tougher job market for workers with college degrees

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that the economy grew by 162,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August, exceeding economists' forecasts of 55,000.

Homebase chief economist Guy Berger discusses how the current job market may actually be a tougher environment for workers with college degrees.

00:00 Speaker A

It is the lower wage jobs where we are seeing more growth. In other words, the biggest addition, well, we had the the local government and education adding. But you also had um restaurants and bars adding a lot of employees. You have continued upward trend in healthcare although it moderated a little bit. Um information showing a decline on the sort of more probably white collar side of the equation. So what does that imply also, the kind of the composition of of the gains?

00:29 Speaker B

Well, I think we, you know, 15, 20 years ago, we were talking about this big crisis faced by workers without college degrees and now they're ironically the ones whose skills are in high demand, whether it's building data centers, um construction, etc. just things that involve doing things with their hands. Um whereas I think whether it's AI or just generally other trends, there are a lot more college students than there used to be, or college grads or rather. Um it's a harder job market for people with college degrees than than than we've been used to, especially in the context of an economy that most people describe as solid.

01:06 Speaker A

So, what you recently wrote about the K-shaped economy, which has been getting, it's been a big discussion point, right? Uh Scott Bessent has talked about that he thinks the the K is is getting a little bit better here. Um and you wrote about this recently and said, you know, really the widening happened years ago and it hasn't gotten materially worse. So walk us through that that reasoning.

01:27 Speaker B

Yeah, sure. So, I think that you can look at either income or wealth and it's definitely true that we had this pretty long and substantial period of of inequality winding that happened, you know, in the in the the odts before the great recession. The great recession financial crisis accelerated tremendously. We had this long period where lots of people didn't have jobs, um had negative equity. And then since the mid 2010s, late 2010s, things have reversed a little bit. A lot of it's that we've had, you know, aside from COVID, um a long period where where unemployment's been quite low. So a lot of people have been employed that allows them to to to to to experi actually experience wage gains. Um also to to pay down debt, to acquire some assets. And so as a result, again, this this story, inequality is still very high in the United States. And I just because it has not widened, doesn't mean I'm going to be a Polly and say, wow, we're back to to the good old days. But I do think this idea of perpetually widening unemployment is sort of a story of the past. We're in a world where where inequality is is high and steady.

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