Quick Read
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NKE trades at $38.35, turning a $1,000 investment from 10 years ago into just $852 even with dividends reinvested.
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A $1,000 investment in NKE five years ago is worth just $251 today, while the same bet on the S&P 500 grew to $1,670.
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Nike expects fiscal 2027 revenue to fall by a high-single-digit percentage as conditions in China worsen, with restructuring savings not expected to peak until fiscal 2029 or 2030.
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Nike( NYSE:NKE ) shares trade at $38.35, down from a $52.02 close on October 28, 2016. Considering price alone, $1,000 invested a decade ago is worth $737.22 today, a 26.28% loss. If you reinvested the dividends, the total-return loss shrinks to 14.75%, leaving $852.50. Either way, ten years of having one of the world's best-known brands cost you money.
From Record Highs to 12-Year Lows
The early years went well. The stock closed at a high of $177.51 in November 2021, when Nike ran hard into selling directly to consumers. Nike has since reversed that strategy and is rebuilding its wholesale relationships. Last quarter, NIKE Direct fell 8%, and NIKE Brand Digital fell 13%.
The weakness runs across the business. In fiscal Q1 2027, Greater China revenue fell 22% to $1.18 billion, Converse dropped 28%, and total revenue slipped 4.3% to $11.21 billion. For fiscal 2026, revenue grew just 0.19% to $46.4 billion, while net income fell 3.45%. In September, the shares hit 12-year lows after Kylian Mbappé left for a rival brand, and Nike had already been dropped from the S&P 100.
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Through it all, Nike kept raising its payout. The quarterly dividend is $0.41 today, up from $0.16 in 2016 (both figures adjusted for the 2015 two-for-one split).
Your $1,000 Shrank While the Market More Than Tripled
1-Year Return
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Initial Investment:$1,000
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Current Value:$587.50
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Total Return:-41.25%
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S&P 500 (same period):$1,116.30 (11.63%)
5-Year Return
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Initial Investment:$1,000
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Current Value:$251.20
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Total Return:-74.88%
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Annualized Return:-24.14%
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S&P 500 (same period):$1,670 (67%)
10-Year Return
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Initial Investment:$1,000
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Current Value:$852.50 with dividends; $737.22 on price only
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Total Return:-14.75%
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Annualized Return:-1.58%
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S&P 500 (same period):$3,608.60 (260.86%)
Entry timing counted most. Buyers at the 2021 peak are down 78.40% on price. The five-year window captures most of the slide: Nike returned -24.14% over that period, while the index gained 10.80% per year. The S&P 500 figures above count price only, so including its dividends would widen the gap further.
What Has to Go Right Before Nike Recovers
The recovery case strengthens if the Pace restructuring hits its target of $2.5 billion in total savings through fiscal 2031 and the performance business grows fast enough to offset Sportswear, Jordan, and China. Running grew double digits last quarter. CFO Dave Denton also said that "under all scenarios, we have support for maintaining and ultimately growing the dividend over time."
The case damps if China keeps getting worse. On the October 1 call, Denton said the guidance "assumes that China actually gets worse from a revenue perspective for the balance of this year," and Nike expects fiscal 2027 revenue to fall by a high-single-digit percentage.
For retirement savers, the main risk is that the dividend ends up being the only return for years while the share price keeps sliding. The key is a margin recovery once Pace savings peak in fiscal years 29 and 30. November's investor day is the next checkpoint for a credible five-year plan.
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