Key Stats for NIO Stock
-
Current Price:$3.21
-
Street Target (Mean):~$6.10
-
Street Target (Low):~$3.70
-
Analyst Ratings:11 Buy, 5 Outperform, 6 Hold, 1 Underperform
What Happened?
NIO ( NIO:NYSE )delivered 34,246 vehicles in October, down 15.2% from a year earlier. It was the company's first year-over-year decline since February 2024, ending 31 straight months of growth. Rivals set records the same month: Xpeng ( XPEV:NYSE ) passed 50,000 for the first time with 50,237, and Leapmotor ( 9863 ) delivered 106,127. All of NIO's year-over-year drop came from ONVO, its family brand. The premium NIO brand and Firefly both grew.
NIO released the figures on Sunday, November 1, after shares closed at $3.21 on October 30. The stock is down 37.06% in 2026 and sits 13.2% below the lowest Wall Street target TIKR tracks.
ONVO Lost More Cars Than NIO Did as a Whole
October 2025 was a hard comparison. It was NIO's first month above 40,000 deliveries, lifted by a then-record 17,342 ONVO cars. This October, the NIO brand delivered 18,125 (up 5.7%), and the compact Firefly brand delivered 7,738 (up 30.9%). ONVO fell 51.7% to 8,383. That 8,959-car drop is larger than the company's entire 6,151-car decline.
The NIO brand is not off the hook. It fell 15.0% from September's 21,318, more than the company's total month-over-month decline. ONVO has slipped every month since July's 10,155. It supplied 24.5% of October's cars, against CEO William Li's long-term goal of 55% of group sales, according to Electric-vehicles.com.
On the September 1 earnings call, Morgan Stanley analyst Tim Hsiao asked how NIO would lift ONVO's orders. Li, speaking through an interpreter, said ONVO would remain a premium family brand. He said NIO would not be very aggressive in entering the entry-level segment and would balance sales volume against vehicle gross margin. He also said a major new ONVO model is due in 2027.
October alone doesn't show whether ONVO's slide reflects that pricing discipline or weaker demand. Li Auto's deliveries also fell, by 8.6% to 29,025, but Xpeng grew 19.6% and Leapmotor 51.0%, so the market explains only part of it.
TIKR tracks 23 analysts on NIO. How many say "Buy"?See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on NIO, along with Wall Street's revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See NIO's Analyst Ratings
Selling Costs Are the Next Test
Chief Financial Officer Stanley Qu pointed to a lever more within NIO's control. He guided second-half selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) costs to about 10% to 11% of revenue on a non-GAAP basis, down from around 13% in the first half. He attributed the gap to roughly RMB 500 million of one-off launch costs in Q2. Revenue has less room to help: Q2's RMB 32.14 billion landed below the bottom of NIO's own guidance range.
Volume is harder. Li's goal of more than 40,000 deliveries a month in the fourth quarter now requires November and December to average about 42,900. NIO's best month of 2026 so far was 40,597, in June. Li tied the goal to a market recovery, but the China Passenger Car Association projects 2026 retail sales of about 18.5 million vehicles, roughly 22% below 2025. The October 24 TIKR piece named October as the test of that goal.
-
JPMorgan Target:~$3.70 (cut from $4.50 on October 26, Neutral)
-
Buy or Outperform Ratings:16 of 23
-
2026 Free Cash Flow (Consensus):~RMB 7.9 billion
-
NTM Levered Free Cash Flow Yield:~16%
A free cash flow yield that high, at a price below every target TIKR tracks, suggests investors doubt the estimates, and October's ONVO slide gives them a reason.
Conclusion
Two numbers will show whether October was a blip. November deliveries come first, in early December. Another month near 34,000 would leave December needing more than NIO's record of 48,135 cars. The third-quarter report follows; it's expected in late November but not yet scheduled. SG&A falling toward 11% of revenue would show NIO can protect profit while ONVO shrinks. SG&A stuck near 13%, with deliveries short, would mean it is losing ground on both.
So what is NIO stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR's valuation model and see what NIOcould be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It's free to use.
