The Morning Bull - US Market Morning Update Monday, Nov, 2 2026
US stocks are set for a cautiously positive open, with index futures inching higher as investors focus on fresh US activity data. The single driver today is the October ISM Manufacturing PMI and its read on growth and inflation pressure.
The ISM index is projected at 54.6 for October, slightly above the prior 54.5 reading. Markets also get the ISM manufacturing employment gauge, last at 52.7, which feeds directly into payrolls expectations and rate path assumptions for the Federal Reserve.
A firm manufacturing print tends to support revenue expectations in cyclical areas while keeping upward pressure on borrowing costs. Softer figures can ease yield expectations, which often benefits long duration, growth oriented stocks that are more sensitive to discount rates.
The real fork in the road today is simple. If ISM and its jobs component confirm the consensus view of steady momentum, the current risk tone holds. A clear miss or upside surprise would force investors to rethink this week's positioning into JOLTS and payrolls.
Stocks to Watch Before the Opening Bell
Lumentum Holdings (LITE)
Lumentum shares declined 8.6% after the group reported first quarter fiscal 2027 results and outlined a sizable new opportunity in optical hardware. Management highlighted growth across all lines, with pump lasers and optical circuit switches described as key contributors and optical switching framed as a potential multi billion dollar revenue stream.
The company also announced a second major NPO/CPO win with purchase commitments above US$5b and guided to higher revenue plus a non GAAP operating margin above 45% for the second quarter. Traders watching Lumentum are likely to focus on how quickly those large commitments convert into booked sales.
Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla shares are modestly weaker, down 0.9%, as attention swings to the latest Full Self Driving software roll out. Version 14.3.13 is now on more than 30% of the fleet, yet early user reviews flag it as a regression versus the prior build.
Reports include a crash during an unprotected left turn and missed basic safety cues such as braking for small obstacles, along with Cybertruck owners citing weaker FSD performance. The key question for Tesla watchers is how quickly the company responds with fixes and whether regulators show interest in the new incident data.
Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR)
Broadridge inched up 0.4% after announcing that its on chain governance tools and digital transfer agency services will plug directly into the New York Stock Exchange tokenized securities platform, subject to regulatory approval. The NYSE plans to use Broadridge smart contracts to tie tokenized shares to meeting agendas, voting rules, and verifiable tallies.
The arrangement would let issuers tokenize equity and handle trading, clearing, and shareholder voting inside a single ecosystem. For investors watching Broadridge, the focus is on how quickly issuers adopt tokenized securities once the structure goes live.
Top Movers
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Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN)jumped 13.33% after Regeneron reported strong Q3 earnings, higher revenue, and a new dividend.
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Global Payments (GPN)climbed 12.97% on reports that CD&R and GTCR are pursuing a potential take-private deal.
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Rocket Companies (RKT)gained 7.38% after Rocket Companies posted stronger Q3 results and saw multiple analysts lift price targets.
Top Losers
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Intel (INTC)fell 28.58% after weak Q4 guidance, Israel fab disruption, and a sharp reset in PC demand expectations.
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Illumina (ILMN)declined 18.64% after Q3 results, higher guidance, and China Unreliable Entities List impacts unsettled investors.
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Roblox (RBLX)dropped 18.05% after Q4 bookings outlook underwhelmed, and multiple analysts cut price targets following earnings.
On The Radar
US trading over the next few days is focused on how the ISM reports and a dense run of jobs data may reset views on Federal Reserve policy, while tech and mega cap earnings keep single stock risk high.
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ISM Manufacturing PMI & Employment, USMon 2 Nov. A headline PMI near the 54.6 consensus and an employment gauge around the 53 forecast would align with current Fed rate expectations. A weaker mix would typically take pressure off borrowing costs and support long duration growth stocks.
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JOLTS Job Openings, USTue 3 Nov. Openings were 7.079m with a 7.13m consensus for the new print. Any reading clearly above that range would point to a tighter labour market that can keep wage pressure and rate expectations elevated.
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ADP Employment & ISM Services PMI, USWed 4 Nov. ADP hiring is forecast at 80k against 90k previously and ISM services is pegged at 54.8, with firmer outcomes generally supporting the US dollar and sectors tied to higher yields such as financials.
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Non Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate, USFri 6 Nov. Payrolls are expected at 65k versus 29k before and joblessness is seen steady at 4.2%. A hotter combination would usually reinforce expectations of restrictive Fed policy that can pressure rate sensitive equities.
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Apple (AAPL) Q4 2026 earningsMon 2 Nov. Revenue trends and guidance around iPhone and services will matter most for how investors treat large cap tech cash flows against higher discount rates and can influence sentiment across the broader US market.
Sector & Industry Watch
Tech: AI capex meets rate reality
Tech has slipped over the past week, with a 7 day decline just above 2% and a deeper pullback over 30 days, even though the 1 year figure is still positive. Heavy AI and data center spending from groups like Microsoft, Apple and Palantir is running into questions about free cash flow and bond funded projects as investors weigh borrowing costs.
If a big chunk of your portfolio leans on software, cloud or IT infrastructure, watch this afternoon's ISM Manufacturing PMI because a firm read can keep rate cut hopes in check and that matters for long lived AI buildouts.
Semiconductors: Chip stocks cool after AI surge
Semiconductors are under pressure again, with the industry down roughly 2.5% over 7 days and showing an even softer 30 day patch despite strong year to date gains. Headlines around Nvidia, Intel and Qualcomm underline how sensitive chip orders are to AI server demand and to any hint that customers might slow new fab or data center commitments.
If you hold chip ETFs or GPU exposed stocks, the key trigger to watch is Friday's US Non Farm Payrolls because a stronger labour print can keep yields firm, which often weighs most on sectors priced for high future earnings.
Telecom: Communication services hit from many sides
Telecom has been one of the weakest areas recently, with a sharp 7 day fall of about 7% and declines across 30 day, year to date and 1 year periods. Alphabet's softer share performance, ad market cross currents and resistance from large US companies to tokenized stock trading are all feeding into caution on parts of the communication services sector.
If you rely on this area for growth and media exposure, keep an eye on the US JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday because tighter labour conditions can support ad budgets while also keeping pressure on rates that affect how investors value longer duration earnings streams.
Energy & Oil and Gas: Higher crude keeps cash stories in focus
Energy and Oil and Gas have both nudged higher over the past week, with 7 day gains close to 1% even after a very strong 12 month run that is above 50%. News around LNG projects at Venture Global and Kosmos Energy plus geopolitical risk that feeds into Goldman Sachs' higher Brent assumptions are helping keep attention on cash generation and balance sheet repair.
If you own US producers, refiners or LNG exporters, watch Wednesday's EIA crude inventory data because any sign that US stockpiles are tightening again can influence views on how sustainable current pricing is for the sector.
Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals & Biotech: Drug data and devices support defensives
Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals & Biotech are still ahead of the US Market on 7 day, year to date and 1 year returns, with the drug focused industry up almost 5% over the week. Fresh trial updates from Abbott, Heartflow, Merck and Johnson & Johnson, along with steady demand stories from Molina Healthcare and others, keep interest in treatments for heart disease, HIV and complex procedures rather than day to day retail spending.
If you use these sectors as a partial stabiliser in your portfolio, Thursday's US Initial Jobless Claims and productivity data are the key reference points because they shape how comfortable investors feel about employer healthcare budgets and government funding heading into the next Fed decisions.
How To Find Stocks That Fit Your Strategy
If you care most about steadier areas like healthcare and pharmaceuticals that have recently outpaced the US Market, start with this list of 29 resilient stocks with low risk scores .
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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