Quick Read
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Dave Ramsey blamed Nike's decline on the Kaepernick campaign, but NKE shares actually surged to $145 by 2021, three years after the ad.
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North America grew 2% last quarter while Greater China revenue collapsed 26%, revealing product and distribution failures as the real culprits.
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NKE remains profitable at $2.08 EPS with a 4% dividend yield, but its $2.5 billion restructuring won't deliver most savings until sometime between 2029 and 2030.
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During the October 16 episode of The Ramsey Show , Dave Ramsey said Nike( NYSE:NKE ) "has lost $200 billion of its value" "due to their political stances." His judgment: "They've shot themselves in the face." Then he asked, "Can you sell me a Colin Kaepernick T-shirt? Or not."
Ramsey, the country's best-known debt-advice host, made the point while arguing that stock prices follow sales and profits. He said during the segment, "The only thing I can look at is data and history, not feelings," and added, "the reality is the company's not making a profit."
If you judge a stock by the political story attached to it, you will track the wrong numbers and misjudge whether a recovery is coming.
Nike's Profits Undercut Ramsey's Claim of a Money-Losing Company
Ramsey's framework is correct: price follows earnings. Nike's own numbers show a profitable company. Nike earned $2.08 a share over the trailing year on a 7% profit margin. It trades at a trailing P/E of 17.
It also pays a $1.64 annual dividend. At today's price near $37, that works out to a yield of about 4.4%. Money-losing companies rarely send cash like that to shareholders every quarter.
The damage itself is real. Shares are down 43% in a year and 74% over five years. Put another way, $10,000 invested five years ago is worth about $2,571 today, not counting dividends.
Now check the timeline. The Kaepernick "Dream Crazy" campaign ran in 2018. Nike shares sat near $45 in October 2016.
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They were near $145 in October 2021, three years after the ad. A problem that bad would have shown up sooner. This is attribution bias: grabbing the most memorable story and treating it as the cause.
Where Sales Disappeared Reveals Who Actually Walked Away
The one variable that determines this is geography. An American political boycott would hit North America hardest. North America actually grew 2% last quarter to $5.1 billion, and North American wholesale rose 9%.
Greater China went the other way. Revenue there fell 26% on a currency-neutral basis to $1.2 billion. The fall is part of a pattern: China also dropped 17% currency-neutral the quarter before.
Management explained the cause simply. Chief Executive Elliott Hill said Nike is "eliminating distribution through channels that are not aligned with our marketplace strategy, which will decrease the deep discounting of our brands." Jordan revenue fell by the mid-teens after Nike oversupplied retro sneakers. Converse dropped 28%. The stock closed at a 13-year low after the earnings report.
Ramsey's own logic fits these numbers: "Nike stock has gone down in value. Why? Because their sales have gone down." The sales vanished in Shanghai and in sneaker supply decisions.
Run the Segment Test Before Trusting Any Stock Story
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Read the geographic table first.Nike's quarterly earnings release, filed with the SEC, breaks out revenue by region. If a story blames U.S. consumers, check whether U.S. sales actually fell.
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Compare trailing and forward earnings.Nike guides fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS of $1.15 to $1.35. At today's price, that implies about 28x to 32x forward earnings. The trailing 17 looks a lot lower than that.
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Test dividend coverage.The $1.64 dividend is higher than even the top of that EPS guidance. Nike holds $8.4 billion in cash and short-term investments, which can cover the gap for a while. Track whether earnings recover before that cash runs low.
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Map the turnaround calendar.CFO Dave Denton said guidance "assumes that China actually gets worse" this year. The Pace restructuring targets about $2.5 billion in savings, with most of it arriving in fiscal 2029 and 2030. Nike's November investor day will spell out its long-term targets.
Ramsey picked the right test, price follows profit, and Nike's segment data shows that test points to China and product stumbles.
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One investment mistake could create big risks for your retirement. Many investors make the same critical errors: being too conservative, making big bets on "sure things," or paying excessive fees. Any of those blunders can endanger your hard-earned savings.
Now you can learn the mistakes even experienced investors make (and ways you can sidestep them before it's too late) with this new guide: 13 Retirement Mistakes and How to Avoid Them from Fisher Investments. (sponsor)
Contact editorial@247wallst.com for any questions or corrections.
