"The US president has suggested talks could resume as early as tomorrow, but so far there's been no official confirmation from Iran.

"In fact, the messaging from Tehran has been quite the opposite. For example, the Deputy Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly today stated outright that negotiations are off the table until the United States acknowledges its failure.

"If there's any comfort to be taken, it's that at least one side (the US) is signalling a willingness to get talks moving again quickly. Less comforting is the ongoing lack of clarity around the Strait of Hormuz. With no clear plan to reopen it, uncertainty remains elevated."

3.40pm: Not much confidence on Iran deal

Traders on Polymarket are now betting on a later resolution to the US-Iran conflict, with the end of June emerging as the most likely point for a peace deal, though with notably less conviction than before.

The contract for 30 June currently implies a 56% probability, up sharply in recent sessions, compared with 39% for the end of May and just 10% for 30 April. An early resolution by 24 April is now seen as highly unlikely, with odds at just 1%.

Two weeks ago, punters on the decentralised prediction market platform were pricing the end of June as the most likely point at which Donald Trump will announce a formal end to US military operations against Iran, with the contract for that date carrying a 78% implied probability against just 10% for a resolution by 15 April.

The shift suggests markets are pushing expectations further out, even as the overall probability of a near-term agreement has softened. Trading volumes remain concentrated in the nearer-dated contracts, with more than $10 million wagered on an April outcome.

Polymarket bets on the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of May, are seen as having a 46% chance, compared to a 3% chance by the end of April, 21% chance by mid-May, and 66% for the end of June. 

2.55pm: US stocks open higher

US stocks have joined in with European peers and opened lower.

The Dow Jones and Nasdaq are both down 0.3% with the S&P 500 slipping 0.1%. 

Biggest fallers on the S&P are all on the back of earnings: ServiceNow, Freeport-McMoRan and IBM, all down over 10%. Tesla is down 2.3%.

At the other end, United Rentals, Texas Instruments, West Pharmaceutical Services and Molina Healthcare are all up 10% or more. 

Back in London, the FTSE is trimming losses. 

1.36pm: Polymarket weather bet rigged

In France we have a new entrant in the "markets meet reality" hall of fame, thanks to a crafty Polymarkets user.

Météo France spotted suspicious evening temperature spikes at Charles de Gaulle airport – just as chunky bets were piling into Paris weather contracts on Polymarket.

Un coincidence? Mais non ! The big money better apparently moseyed over and used a hairdryer or some other mechanical means to raise the temp to the required level. 

The incident has been reported to police, the FT says.  

Bloomberg reports that prediction market traders and independent meteorologists in a French weather discussion forum flagged the data irregularities and questioned the results of the contracts, which attracted roughly US$1.4 million (S$1/8 million) in combined bets, according to data on Polymarket.

Total betting for each was more than double the typical volume for other daily Paris temperature contracts in April.

12.50pm: AI investment cycle broadening

Fresh evidence of surging capital flows into artificial intelligence has prompted UBS to argue that the AI investment cycle is broadening , even as investors grow more discriminating about where returns will accrue.

The latest House View note from UBS's Chief Investment Office highlighted Amazon's commitment to invest up to $25 billion more in Anthropic, Anthropic's pledge to spend more than $100 billion over the next decade on Amazon's cloud infrastructure, and recent funding rounds, including Recursive Superintelligence, a four-month-old frontier AI lab that raised at least $500 million at a $4 billion valuation.

Those deals follow a first quarter in which AI-related venture activity helped lift global start-up investment to a record $300 billion, according to data from research firm Crunchbase.

On the hardware side, UBS pointed to the Philadelphia semiconductor index rallying for 16 consecutive sessions, advancing more than 35% during the period, while South Korean semiconductor exports surged more than 180% year over year in the first 20 days of April.

12.14pm: US stocks seen lower, led by IBM and Tesla

The FTSE 100 sank to an intraday deficit of over 100 points in late morning, but has started to pare losses 

US futures are pointing to a softer open after yesterday's rally, with the Dow Jones seen heading down 0.6%, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both off 0.4%.

The pullback looks like mild profit-taking after fresh highs for tech stocks, says analyst David Morrison at Trade Nation, though geopolitical tensions are back in focus following reports of US and Iranian moves in the Strait of Hormuz and Asian waters.

The dollar is firmer on safe-haven demand, while WTI crude oil is just below $94 a barrel.

Earnings in focus today include Tesla's numbers last night, with the shares down 3% in premarket trading despite earnings beating Street forecasts . 

IBM also beat on quarterly numbers, but the outlook seemed to disappoint , with shares down almost 7% premarket,m

Results are due later from names including American Express, Thermo Fisher, NextEra Energy, Union Pacific, Honeywell, Lockheed Martin, Sanofi, Comcast, Blackstone and Freeport McMoRan. Intel and SAP are due after the close. 

11.38am: CBI finds weaker manufacturing trends

The CBI industrial trends survey total orders balance fell to -38 in April, from -27 in March, below the consensus forecast of -34.

In seasonally-adjusted terms, the balance fell to -36, from -30 in March.

Sentiment among UK manufacturers has deteriorated at its fastest pace since the pandemic, the Confederation of British Industry survey found, with firms growing sharply more pessimistic on both business conditions and exports.

Output and orders were both falling, with total new orders dropping at the quickest rate since mid-2020 and expected to weaken further in the coming months.

The downturn is broad-based, spanning sectors from food to engineering, with firms also reporting rising spare capacity.

Costs are climbing again, with input prices expected to rise at the fastest pace in more than three years. Selling prices are increasing too, but not enough to offset higher costs, pointing to a renewed squeeze on margins.

Against this backdrop, companies are cutting investment and jobs, with employment falling at the fastest rate since 2020 and further declines expected. 

CBI economist Ben Jones said: "Warning signs are flashing in this survey. Sentiment among UK manufacturers is deteriorating at a speed not seen since the pandemic. It's clear that the war in the Middle East is contributing to rising uncertainty, with supply chains beginning to see some renewed strain and cost pressures intensifying."

10.52am: Risers and fallers

Some movers. 

Active Energy shares have shot up around 17%, up almost 50% over the past week, as it announced the signing of heads of terms to acquire a grid connection in the UAE , extending its push to assemble energisation-ready power capacity for digital infrastructure projects in the Middle East.

Diales gained 15% as the consultant told investors that first-half profit is set to jump 43%  as its transformation strategy gathers pace. Diales was known as Driver Group until two years ago. 

Mirriad Advertising crashed 73% as the virtual in-content advertising technology company warned it may be forced into administration or liquidation after efforts to secure emergency funding failed.

Blue-chip RELX fell 2.7% despite the information and analytics group reporting a strong start to 2026 and reaffirming its full-year outlook.

10.19am: PMI will help BoE stand pat next week, but rate hikes could be coming

Today's PMI data is unlikely to make much difference for the Bank of England's monetary policy committee at next week's rates meeting, says Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK.

"However, signs that the economy is holding up, while inflation is accelerating, makes it more likely that the BoE will raise interest rates later this year."

He says the "surprisingly strong" flash composite PMI for April suggests the economy is "holding up" in the face of the Iran war, though that resilience is "partly due to activity being brought forward ahead of prices rises and is unlikely to last if the Straits of Hormuz remain closed and energy prices go higher".

The impact of the Gulf war is most apparent in the surge in input prices, which jumped to the highest since mid-2022, with the acceleration in services input costs was the largest on record as the combination of surging fuel prices and the higher minimum wage came into effect.

"This is gradually feeding through to output prices, which jumped to 62.2, the highest since late-2022, suggesting that underlying inflation will rise sharply over the rest of this year."

Rushing activity before price rises and supply shortages start to bite means there is a "significant risk of a sharp drop" coming in May, he adds.

"For the Bank of England, uncertainty around the trajectory of the war and the impact on the economy means holding monetary policy steady at next week's meeting is the sensible policy choice."

Markets are giving just a 10% chance of a rate hike next week.

10.05am: Revolut IPO gets analyst backing

Revolut's push to become a "truly global bank" has been backed by JP Morgan , with IPO chatter now circling around a punchy $150-200 billion valuation.

That's a big jump from $75 billion last year, with a $100 billion secondary sale likely first and any listing not before 2028.

Rapid growth is doing the heavy lifting – revenue hit $6 billion and profit $1.7 billion in 2025, while the recent gaining of a UK banking licence and US ambitions both add credibility to the story.

JP Morgan's note describes Revolut as having developed a "super-app" that has evolved far beyond its origins as a foreign exchange card for travellers, now spanning payments, banking, crypto, investing, lending, lifestyle benefits and merchant services across more than 40 countries, with over 70 million retail customers and 767,000 business clients.

9.40pm: Flash PMI survey mixed

The flash reading of the UK composite PMI rose to 52.0 in April from 50.3 in March, above the consensus forecast of 49.8. 

In this preliminary version of the survey, with data collected between April 9 and 21, both services and manufacturing elements bounced back from the weaker previous month.

The services PMI increased to 52.0 in April, from 50.5 in March, above the consensus estimate of 50.0.

Manufacturing rose to 53.6 in April, from 51.0, better than the forercast 50.3.

The output index increased to 51.8, from 49.2 in March. 

"The UK economy has gathered some renewed momentum in April after the initial impact of the war in the Middle East caused growth to stall in March," says Chris Williamson, economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, "but the upturn comes with a catch.

"The improved rate of expansion is in part a reflection of a short-term boost from a rush to secure purchases ahead of feared price rises and supply shortages linked to the war.

"Prices have spiked higher at a rate not previously seen by the survey outside of the pandemic, suggesting inflation could rise more than many forecasters have been anticipating.

"Prices are rising not just because of surging energy costs, but also due to increases in charges levied for a wide variety of goods and services, with price hikes often stoked by supply concerns."

Supply delays have jumped to the highest on record, if the pandemic is excluded.

"Business confidence and employment have also been dragged lower by the ongoing conflict, boding ill for growth to weaken in the coming months just as price pressures intensify."

9.28am: FTSE wallowing

The FTSE 100 is down 52 points at 10,425, with the group of heavyweight ex-divs the biggest drag.

Sainsbury's is dragging on the index with its shares down 4.8%, with 3i Group, whose main investment is in discount retailer Action, also down 3%. 

Falls in gold and silver are an extra reason why Fresnillo is the biggest faller, with a decline for copper also hitting Antofagasta (Anglo American shares are up though).  

At the other end, there are only 20 blue-chips in green this morning.

SSE is up 1.15%, bouncing back for the third day in a row, with Reckitt Benckiser also rebounding from yesterday's losses, up 1.1%. 

Oilers BP and Shell are up 0.8%, while utilities and tobacco are in demand, with BT Group, Vodafone, BAT and Imperial among the risers too.   

9.04am: Shoplifting impact on margins

Another angle on Greggs's profit margins, which when the chain last reported were under pressure from rising costs. 

This report from London Centric reveals some of the extend of shoplifting the group is seeing in London. 

"Over the course of four hours on a quiet Tuesday morning on Electric Avenue, London Centric witnessed more than a dozen shoplifters steal from this one branch of Greggs. In one instance, a woman stopped mid-theft to complain that there was not enough stock on display.

"'No pastries?' she called out to the staff as she cleared the shelves."

8.49am: Sainsbury's mixed

Market commentators are mixed on Sainsbury's, where cautious guidance is perhaps the main weight on the shares.

Aarin Chiekrie at Hargreaves Lansdown says the grocer "delivered a sweet set of full-year results", with operating profits and free cash flows edging past guidance.

Richard Hunter at ii says underlying pre-tax profit of £718 million was up 1.3% but lower than the £730 million that analysts expected. 

He adds: "There is more than a tinge of disappointment accompanying these results, which came up against higher expectations leading into the numbers, and this is quite apart from any impact of the current Middle Eastern conflict."

But overall he fells the numbers are "solid" and underneath the bonnet sees "some signs of further progress," he said, pointing to grocery revenues as the likes of the group's Aldi Price Match and Your Nectar Prices proving popular.

Chiekrie agrees that these factors are "doing a great job" of keeping customers loyal.

"Rather than pass through the full extent of cost inflation to customers, Sainsbury's has eaten some of the additional costs in a bid to keep its prices low and competitive," with investing in the store estate and upgrading tech resulting in profits falling slightly short of last year's level.

Looking ahead, he says Sainsbury's has made a good start to the year, with grocery volume growth outpacing the broader market but says full-year guidance looks "understandably cautious" due to Sainsbury's exposure to general merchandise through its ownership of Argos, an area where sales have been lacklustre.

"The conflict in the Middle East will also bring a host of challenges this year, including higher costs and subdued demand, especially for the more discretionary items that Argos sells."

8.29am: WH Smith tumbles

Shares in WH Smith have tumbled over 13% after the airports and railway stations retailer reported a sharp drop in profits and suspended its dividend , despite higher revenues in the first half.

Headline profit before tax plunged 85% to £3 million, down from £21 million a year earlier, as revenue swelled 5% to £748 million, driven by stronger performance in North America and other international markets.

On a statutory basis, trading profit declined to £38 million from £40 million, while group pre-tax losses increased to £25 million from £4 million.

8.13am: FTSE 100 opens lower, ex-divs and gold miners weigh

The FTSE 100 has dropped 53 points to 10,423 in opening trades. 

Biggest fallers are today's group of ex-dividend shares, led by Legal & General and BAE Systems, along with Rolls-Royce, Fresnillo, Spirax, Hiscox and Rightmove, combining to reduce the index by 9.87 points.

Sainsbury's is down 5.3% as its results missed the mark. Tesco is down 2.1% too, despite impressing with its own numbers last week. 

Endeavour Mining is down as gold and silver prices have dropped as oil has risen. 

7.59am: LSEG lifts outlook

London Stock Exchange Group has upgraded its outlook for 2026  after making a strong start to the year, thanks in large part to data subscriptions and new AI-driven products.

The exchange and data group said total income rose 9.8% in the three months to March, with particularly strong growth in its Markets division, up 15.5%, driven by higher trading volumes in volatile conditions.

Subscription businesses, which provide more predictable recurring revenues, grew 6.3%, with all divisions accelerating from the previous quarter.

LSEG now expects full-year revenue growth to land in the upper half of its 6.5-7.5% guidance range, alongside an improvement in EBITDA margins and free cash flow.

7.45am: Markets react as US intercepts three Iranian ships 

Stocks in Asia and futures for Europe and the US have been "jolted by news that the US has intercepted three Iranian oil tankers in Asian waters", says market analyst Kathleen Brooks at XTB. 

The US Navy is redirecting the ships away from positions near India, Malaysia and Sri Lanka.

"This is the first time the US' naval blockade has reached beyond the Strait of Hormuz, and it comes after two container ships were stopped by Iranian forces as they tried to travel through the Strait.

"This will obviously make peace talks tricky, and it directly affects the flow of oil and trade around the world."

It is a large part of why Brent crude price has climbed 1.6% to $103.5 a barrel and is currently trading above $103.

"The sharp rise in the oil price is hurting global equities, Asian stocks are a sea of red, and futures markets point to more losses for Europe, and US stocks are set to pull back from their recent record highs," says Brooks.

7.34am: Sainsbury profit dips

Sainsbury's has reported lower profits for the past year , which it blamed on competition to keep prices down in a competitive grocery market.

The supermarket group's retail underlying operating profit fell 1.1% to £1.025 billion for the 52 weeks to 28 February 2026, despite sales growth of 5.2% across its core grocery business.

The decline reflects a deliberate decision not to pass on the full extent of cost inflation to shoppers, Sainsbury's said, with a choice to increase spending on pricing, staff pay and store improvements.

7.18am: FTSE 100 expected to fall as oil rises to $103

The FTSE 100 is expected to fall further on Thursday as oil prices crossed above $100 a barrel due to a seeming lack of progress with peace talks between Iran and the US.    

London's blue-chip index has been called 49 points lower on the futures market, adding to the almost 22 points lost by yesterday's close at 10,476.46.

Larger falls are expected in some mainland European markets, with futures pointing to Germany's DAX dropping over 150 points at the open. 

US futures are have also swung into the red, after last night's upbeat session, led by the tech-powered Nasdaq, which jumped 1.6% to reach a new record high, as did the S&P 500 after a 1.05% rise. The Dow Jones climbed 0.7%. 

However, gains were quite narrow, with most of S&P 500's constituents falling on the day. 

Oil up as negotiations don't seem near

Brent crude oil has climbed to $103 a barrel this morning.

This would put it on track for a fourth consecutive gain, says macro analyst Henry Allen at Deutsche Bank.

"There hasn't been a single catalyst behind that, but the absence of any peace talks between the US and Iran has led investors to price in a longer conflict again, along with a more extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz."

The US blockade remains in place, and yesterday Iran said they'd seized two commercial ships in the Strait.

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran wants "dialogue and agreement" but the US "breach of commitments, blockade and threats are the main obstacles to genuine negotiations", while lead negotiator Mohammad Ghalibaf said it is "not possible to reopen the Strait of Hormuz considering all the blatant violations of the ceasefire".

On the US side, the White House said that Trump "has not set a firm deadline to receive an Iranian proposal".

Also this morning, the 2025-26 UK budget deficit has been published, coming in at £132 billion, almost exactly in line with the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast.

UK public sector net borrowing was £12.6 billion in March.