This article first appeared on GuruFocus .
With the January 31 submission deadline behind us, the full slate of entries for the 2026 GuruFocus Value Investing Contest is now set.
Performance is measured from the January 15, 2026 closing price. While we are still in the early phase of tracking results, price action is already revealing something instructive about how this market is behaving.
Readers can review all contest submissions here . Below is the ranked performance snapshot so far.
Performance
| Rank |
Company |
Author |
% Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Micron Technology (MU) |
Nauman Khan |
+27.2% |
| 2 |
StoneCo (STNE) |
djobchod |
+22.4% |
| 3 |
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) |
David Garcia |
+17.1% |
| 4 |
NICE Ltd (NICE) |
John Gutierrez |
+1.9% |
| 5 |
Nike (NKE) |
Zachary Graeve |
+1.3% |
| 6 |
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) |
Sheraden Frances |
0.0% |
| 7 |
Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA) |
Jaroslav |
0.9% |
| 8 |
Camping World (CWH) |
Drew Konop |
5.4% |
| 9 |
Amprius Technologies (AMPX) |
Lucie |
6.2% |
| 10 |
Entravision Communications (EVC) |
hotlinekosmonosy |
7.2% |
| 11 |
DiDi Global (DIDIY)* |
Francis van den Broek |
8.5% |
| 12 |
Fiserv (FI) |
Praveen Chawla |
8.9% |
| 13 |
Sezzle (SEZL) |
Akim Guerreiro |
9.7% |
| 14 |
Evolution AB |
Maxx Waring |
13.2% |
| 15 |
Adobe (ADBE) |
Yavuz Akbay |
15.1% |
| 16 |
Applied Digital (APLD) |
Anastasia |
19.6% |
| 17 |
Archer Aviation (ACHR) |
Renato Neves |
21.8% |
| 18 |
Astera Labs (ALAB) |
Mayur Bendre |
24.7% |
*DiDi is tracked but not eligible for prizes.
The Pattern: Earnings Confirmation Is Being Rewarded
The most important takeaway is not sector-based. It is evidence-based.
The Top Three Performers
-
Micron Technology (+27.2%)
-
StoneCo (+22.4%)
-
Deckers Outdoor (+17.1%)
These three companies operate in completely different industries semiconductors, fintech, and consumer apparel yet they share one key feature:
Their most recent earnings confirmed the thesis.
Micron delivered explosive AI-driven revenue and margin expansion. StoneCo demonstrated that adjusted profitability was real and accelerating. Deckers continued to show durable margins and strong cash generation despite macro skepticism. In each case, the story is visible in the numbers. The market, at least so far in 2026, appears willing to reward that.
The Bottom Three: Valid Narratives, But Forward-Looking
At the other end:
-
Astera Labs (24.7%)
-
Archer Aviation (21.8%)
-
Applied Digital (19.6%)
Each of these submissions was built around powerful structural trends AI interconnect leadership, electric aviation certification, AI data center build-out. However:
-
Earnings power is still prospective.
-
Execution milestones are still ahead.
-
Valuation depends heavily on forward expectations.
The most recent quarters have not yet fully validated the long-term narrative, and the market has responded by compressing multiples. That does not invalidate the ideas. It simply reflects the current environment.
What This Says About Today's Market
Across the contest slate, a pattern is emerging:
-
Ideas with visible earnings momentum are outperforming.
-
Ideas reliant on future execution or multiple re-rating are more volatile and, in several cases, sharply lower.
-
Asset-backed and normalization stories are holding relatively steady.
In short:
In this market, show me the money matters more than tell me the story.
We will continue tracking performance and more importantly, whether upcoming quarters begin to shift that balance.
Because while markets vote in the short term, they eventually weigh.
