2020年07月の記事一覧 | ひーちゃんのゼミナール名古屋産業大学（現代ビジネス学科）・大学院環境マネジメント研究科）現代の社会・経済・環境・芸能・スポーツ・宇宙

考察　コロナ・パンデミック大不況Ⅲ　圧迫されるTVコマーシャル

ゼータブリッジ社（東京）が、自動認識技術を使って4月度以降6月度までのの民放、BSのスポンサー別CMの回数と内容を分析しいて興味深い。コロナ感染拡大以降、企業CMが減少し、その間隙を縫ってACジャパンの枠が増えている。「ネコを大事にしろ」が盛んに流れていたことを皆さん覚えているだろう。確か、2011年3月の東日本大震災後のTV・CMにも盛んに登場した。「おうちステイ」など新しい生活様式を反映した内容になっている所が面白い。これらは新しく収録したCMだろう。知りたいのは、新規のCM 作成比率なのだが、それは明らかにされていない。私の印象では、リモートによるものが増え、過去に収録したものの「使いまわし」が増え、CM業界全体としては厳しいものになっていることが推測される。具体的には出演タレントを抱える事務所、クリエーター（CM,音楽、振り付けなど）などの仕事が激減していることまでは、フォローされていない。あるCMクリエーターが言っていたが、警戒宣言発令後、ほとんど仕事がないか、自宅でリモートでやっていたということであった。芸能事務所はCMからの収入に期待するところが大きいとすれば、業界全体に広がっている閉塞感はかなり大きいのではないか。出演タレントさんの仕事が激減していることも深刻ではないか。

2020.07.30

考察　コロナ・パンデミック大不況Ⅱ　コロナ不況は景気循環論では解明できない

景気循環は英語でBusiness cycleというように、景気のよしあしが繰り返して現れることを言う。景気は経済全体の活動水準（天気図）で、同義反復ではあるが、循環的に見られる経済変動のことである。くもりや雨の時もあるが晴れの日もあるといった具合に、景気の波とも呼ばれ、景気が一定の「原因」によって、決まった「周期」で恒常的・法則的に循環するとするのが景気循環論。大学教育を受けたものなら、専門であるとなしかかわらず教養課程の経済学でだれもが習っているはずである。私も、大学の学部の授業で習ったことを今でも覚えている。ここでは、この景気循環について、資本主義経済体制に固有の現象であることを述べる前に、常識的な事柄について説明しよう。　景気循環局面を分割すると、私たちが何度も経験したように、まず拡張（拡大）局面があげられこれは通常、好況、ブームと呼ばれる。後退局面は、好況のあとに来る局面で、不況、リセッションなどと呼ばれ、この2局面に分けて考えられる。また、循環を回復、好況（拡張・拡大）、不況（収縮）の4局面に分割する考え方もあり、このほうが精緻に経済状態を考えることができる。　「コロナ不況」といわれる現下の局面は、コロナ感染症の流行によって、昨年までの好況から、明らかに景気後退局面にあり、先行きが懸念される。　日本の内閣府は景気動向を2局面に分割して景気循環を表しており、景気拡張（拡大）局面の最高点が山で、景気後退局面の最低時点が谷となり、単純な「山・谷曲線」であらわされ、谷から谷（山から山）までが1循環とされている。　首相は取材に対し、不況後に経済はV字回復するなどと言っているが、それは景気循環のこの単純すぎるモデルに基づいている。恐慌は、そのあとに比較的長い不況局面を伴うものであり、V字回復するなどというのは、「アベノミクス」同様、空虚で意味のない希望的観測に過ぎない。　景気循環のうち、設備投資後退に端を発する深刻な不景気を恐慌といい、資産価格の低下などを招き、金融危機を併発すると、より事態は深刻化する。物価が低落し、失業率も10%を超えるなどして不況感が蔓延する。デフレスパイラルが発生する場合もある。農産物の価格支持をやったのは、アメリカ大恐慌の時であった。　19世紀においては恐慌は定期的に起きていた。記録に残る中で史上最も深刻だった恐慌は言うまでもなく、アメリカ1929年秋の金融危機に端を発する世界恐慌である。その後、第二次世界大戦後は管理された経済政策（金融財政政策）が普及し、発生の頻度は低下した。ケインズのいわゆる一般理論は、恐慌の「原因」と対応に一定の有効な理論（有効需要の原理）を提供した。　しかし、1990年代以後、ユーロダラーの動きに合わせて新興諸国で金融危機と恐慌のような状況が併発している。リーマンショックは直近の経済恐慌である。　以上は、表層に過ぎないが、景気循環論から見た恐慌である。しかし、恐慌を「在庫変動」「景気指数」「株価」「失業率」などの指標で説明するやり方は、景況を説明することはできても、何ら恐慌の本質を説明したことにはならない。まして、コロナ不況のような感染症という経済外的要因によって引き起こされた不況の本質を説明したことにはならない。そこからは、「感染症対策と経済の両立」「経済を回す」ことが不況対策であるかのようなイュージョンしか浮かび上がらない。いか、恐慌現象の真の原因と「感染症」との関連を視野に入れた「コロナ不況」を考察する。

2020.07.28

THE EARTH ENVIRONMENT AND GREEN ECONOMY

THE EARTH ENVIRONMENT AND GREEN ECONOMYHISASHI SEGAWAAbout author, Hisashi SegawaProfessor of Tokaigakuen University, JapanDr. Environmental management (Nagoya Sangyo University)13-9 Asahigaoka, Fujieda-city, Shizuoka pref. JapanZip code: 421-0081email: segahisa007@gmail.comPart 1A research on the environmental relationship between oceans, rivers and forests - a preparatory sustainable socio-life science -Part 2Utilization of wind power for the sustainable development of seafood resources in the fishing harbor - fish-growing facility and ice-making plantPart 3Japanese Renewable Portfolio Standard and the Management of Local Government Wind Power Stations Introduction This book contains three main papers which I presented at the international conferences on the renewable energy, rearranging the original reports. Part 1 is ‘A research on the environmental relationship between oceans, rivers and forests - a preparatory sustainable socio-life science, Gaian Social and Economic Theory. This originates in ‘Tokaigakuen University Bulletin: Social Science’Next Part 2 ‘Utilization of wind power for the sustainable development of seafood resources in the fishing harbor - fish-growing facility and ice-making plant’ appeared on the world conference of wwec (world wind energy conference) which was held in 2011 in Korea Cheju Island by World Wind Energy Association.The third ‘Japanese Renewable Portfolio Standard and the Management of Local Government Wind Power Stations’ was reported at the South East Asia Environmental Conference which was held autumn in 2010 by Japanese Association for Environmental Sociology PART 1A research on the environmental relationship between oceans, rivers and forests - a preparatory sustainable socio-life science, Gaian Social and Economic Theory-SummaryA short survey of very long ecological chains of the history of life will be shown and summarized below. Our industrialized age market principle - based economic and social system has destroyed three ecological chains that have been in the same stream of our life recycling system in the Gaian planet. Japanese Professor K. Matsunaga at Hokkaido University presented a hypothesis, not yet being admitted universally but being conducted in many places in Japanese offshore area, in his book titled ‘If the forest disappears, the ocean dies’ that forests supplies many important nutrients including ‘Fe’ which life in the sea needs. His field research - based conclusion lead to the same conviction that I got from social and economic field researches, so I will present a hypothesis -a sustainable socio-life system (Gaian Socio-Economic Theory: GSET) - instead of the universal well-known sustainable growth agenda or the neo – liberalist economic and social reform.PrefaceOn the 16th of August in the summer of 2003, Japanese broadcasts announced very hot days in France. On the contrary, we have long cool days in Japan, the opposite side of France. We know that our planet has become increasingly warmer and warmer, and will inevitably reach at a critical point because of vast consumption of large amount of fossil fuel. We may be standing at a crossroads in the long history of our planet. We have constructed a machine-based civilization and most people live in cities. However, can humankind continue to live and survive on the surface of this tiny planet for the coming centuries ahead? No one can answer this question, but there can be a reasonable possibility that we can survive if we live appropriately, according to a natural life style and through natural courses of our social system – “an invisible hand of God”. This is the key point of this inquiry. In order to understand the environment, we first have to know the basic relationship between the economy and the environment, as well as consider whether they are compatible or not. Generally speaking, the answer is that they are compatible.Whether or not seems to be unclear, because nature can easily be damaged and can never be restored, once damaged. If we once construct factories and similar large scale artificial facilities by clearing off the woods, they will never be restored. If we stop development projects, the forest will be maintained．In this way ‘sustainable development’ is principally incompatible with natural environment. So long as growth means business success, we need to brake or stop further economic growth．Even if we construct buildings by cutting the woods but reserving green zone around them, they are never restored. In order to avoid this inconsistency, we need to prepare other logic. After surveying the long history of life, this new sustainable viewpoint will be referred．Birth and DeathIn relation to above mentioned question whether humankind can live on the earth, the French novel-prize winner, Christian de Duve says in his book titled ‘VITAL DUST’ that ‘life will continue as long as there is a niche on Earth capable of supporting it ’. He continues, ‘But with us or without us? ’ Average longevity for most species is between one million and eleven million years, and for mammals it is two million years. One may, however, wonder whether Gott’s methodology - which has not gone unchallenged - can be applied to the unique case of a species that covers the whole surface of the planet and has amassed a vast, powerful, and commonly shared cultural heritage stored in virtually imperishable form.However, there is no foreseeing what can happen over very large length of time - about 40,000 generations per million years - once a degeneration process, perhaps triggered by a major holocaust, has set in. Entire populations have been wiped out in our times. Why not the whole world population sometime in the future?I think that his ‘maybe or may not be’ is unclear. If we replace his premise ‘triggered by a major holocaust’ instead ‘triggered by decisive environmental changes in relation to the greenhouse effect’, we will have another question. But there may be a high level of possibility that we may not live on the earth any more. That our children will be able to overcome this emergency depends on our own will and efforts． ‘A species that covers the whole surface of the planet and has amassed a vast, powerful, and commonly shared cultural heritage stored in virtually imperishable form’ also means ‘a species that stands on the top of the food chains of life, using his own splendid and vast social system’. Therefore we will have a theme for social sciences that we must struggle sincerely with．OceanAbout 13.7 billion years ago, our universe was born by a Big Bang from a very tiny quantum world and galaxies spread over in the dark space. And sunlight showered from the mother sun all over her planets. About 9 billion years later, or 4.6 billion years ago, our planet was born in the third orbital position from our sun. Meanwhile our tiny original life was born in the very hot, hydrogen sulfide ocean after numerous trials.The first life lived long enough until the next new type of life burst into the ocean and supplied oxygen into the sea and the atmosphere. Our planet surface became such a comfortable place for life that it was able to use the mechanism of producing energy by using light, water and oxygen which means photosynthesis. A certain kind of fish that had a spine-like skeleton through the centerline of its body, appeared in the shallow sea. This indirect ancestor of ours developed into fish-like animals by successive mutations according to the principle of Darwinian natural selection． RiverAmong them, there was a species that dared to wander around into the river in order to escape from its terrible enemies or to get foods. There were plenty of nutrients in the river because plants have succeeded in going ashore, so dead body of plants flew into the river. By having a kidney, they were able to swim in the river very well and also by having a backbone, they were able to supply calcium necessary for their survival.The scenery under the surface of the river may have resembled a cinema production of the struggle for existence. After a long natural selection, there appeared a tough guy who had strong hands, feet and lungs. Preparation for climbing to the land was accomplished and this salamander-like amphibian could live by eating foods under the fern forest.ForestFirst, the forest which consisted of ferns later other plants that could live by flowering and had seeds appeared. Animals or insects could eat fruit and convey pollen to flowers which live in the distant places. A kind of coexistence or alliance between flowers and animals enabled them to flourish rapidly on the surface of this planet. On the contrary, some dinosaurs could not eat fruit but ate conifer leaves, which meant they were outside the ecological circle．One time, a huge meteorite crashed into the earth and dinosaurs became extinct. Our ancestor mammals were able to survive the glacial period that resulted after the collision, and became some kind of monkeys who lived on the top of trees. About some 5 million years ago, huge mountains appeared in the central Africa, and the west side of them remained tropical rain forests and the east side became savanna． Monkeys living in the tropical rain trees remain there but ones in the savanna could not resist climbing down from the trees and walking on the grassy land to search for foods． CivilizationThey caught animals, fish and birds, moving on to new land that could supply foods. Finally, they began to cultivate earth, first by growing wheat and later feeding animal. Cultivation that is to say agriculture enabled them to live in the same place and build villages by constructing houses for their families． They built towns and organized nation states．About 200 years ago, Industrial Revolution broke out in England and this industrial impulse spread all over the world toward the end of the 20th century. Now, almost no area of the earth exists which is not under the influence of the market mechanism. The market mechanism means the decisive separation of production and consumption by transportation.Mass production and mass consumption need a huge and highly concentrated energy and its system. Fossil fuels are used in order to tower the production system and big cities, which emit carbon dioxide into the air, leading to an accumulated, critical greenhouse effect which is also accompanied by the destruction of the tropical rain forests. Temperate zone forests were also cut down for industrial purposes． The seacoast was used for the same purpose by changing it to land for factories office buildings and amusement parks. Nature created human beings, and in turn nature was demolished by them. Birds and animals disappeared in urban areas.Ecology of ocean, river and forestsThe very long ecological chains of the history of life were surveyed above. Now, our economic and social system destroyed the three chains of ecology that were in the same stream of our life recycling system. Professor K. Matsunaga in Hokkaido University in Japan presented a hypothesis in his book titled ‘If the forests disappears， the ocean dies’, that the forests supplies many important nutrients which life living in the sea needs.His experiments and researches came to the same conclusion and conviction as I reached after my social and economic researches. He introduces a hypothesis which supports a sustainable socio-system not well-known sustainable development (SD). SD is illusory, because one is incompatible to the other. If forests are destroyed to construct highways and golf courses, forests will never be revived, and if highway projects are withdrawn, the forests will survive.GNP growth means environmental deterioration, and ecology means natural sanity.Forests grow by their photosynthesis mechanism that can create a huge accumulation of abundant soil under them and supply diversity of nutrients including Fe- for the plankton or plant in the sea. They also rapidly grow by photosynthesis, absorbing carbon dioxide and then emitting oxygen. This eases the greenhouse effect.By cutting and planting trees in the forests, we can use sustainable energy and goods especially for construction and heating materials. In Finland, forests are used for industrial purposes, but in return cutting down trees and selling them in the market results in continuing replanting of the forests which absorb carbon dioxide and fixes it in its wooden trunk .Forests and forest industries enable Finland to reduce the effects of the coming crisis of the greenhouse effect. I do not know which of the broadleaf trees or the conifer trees are effective to produce good soil and supply diversity of nutrients. A research on its effectiveness will contribute to the solution of global warming.We have another kind of forests in the sea that can be used for many industrial purposes and be available for sustaining life. As for the forests, we always look at mountains, but we need to consider how important invisible merits of undersea plankton and forest are. They use photosynthesis! We will be able to construct small and low density towns that have a recycling energy system instead of fossil energy, if we effectively use wood from our forestry cluster.Forest IndustryForests provide many useful materials for us, including constructing timber containing carbon dioxide that is emitted from using fossil fuels. If wood materials are used in such a way that we reduce the amount of usage of fossil fuel, and proper Silvicuture1 is done in both the industrial countries and the under-developed countries， we will have good environmental conditions in the near future.If it is not proper from the environmental point of view to export or import huge amount of wood on vessels, we should produce wood products near the consumption areas. In Finland, production and consumption of wood is interconnected by ventures called ‘Contractors’. The area of wood-harvesting is so limited that it can be transported, corresponding for the needs of the client. They also harvest wood and transport it to the client, for the benefit of forest owners who are organized under the ‘Forest Owner’s Association’，and therefore， they are the necessary components of a forestry cluster. ‘Money is a great traveler in the world’ means here ‘money is a great traveler in the forestry cluster’.In reality, cost and benefit performance of Silviculture is not good in countries where forest industry (forestry) do not produce considerable return because of something like high level of labor cost. So why not create competitive forest industries, using a natural eco-system? And, at the same time, why not create a new way of life that is consistent with our eco-system? The above mentioned possibility of human survival depends on our ability to develop a larger dimension in new production methods and life style.Japanese kombu (sea tangle) 2Last autumn, September (2003), I traveled around the southeast seashore in Hokkaido, Japan in order to research the condition of the Japanese kombu (sea tangle). Many rivers run through forests down from the high mountains into the sea and there were many people catching Kombu on the seashore. As kombu needs nutrients including Fe from the river, the condition of the mountains and forests is decisively important. Fortunately forests is owned by Hokkaido province and may be used by sustainable Silviculture.According to the native inhabitants，fishermen gain 10 million yen (about 100 thousand dollars) by harvesting kombu in the sea and 5 million yen, picking up kombu on the sand, total revenue being 15 million yen per year. This revenue is much enough to live. But young men leave to the big city from their hometown to get much more good job and never come back again, because of their comfortable lives in the city far from their native home towns． Notes1 Silviculture is the practice of controlling the establishment, growth, composition, health, and quality of forests to meet diverse needs and values. The name comes from the Latin silvi- (forest) + culture (as in growing). The study of forests and woods is termed silvology. To some the distinction between forestry and silviculture is that silviculture is applied at the stand level and forestry is broader. For example John D. Matthews says "complete regimes for regenerating, tending, and harvesting forests" are called "silvicultural systems". So active management is required for silviculture. Whereas forestry can be natural, conserved land without a stand level treatment being applied. A common taxonomy divides silviculture into regenerating, tending and harvesting techniques.2 Japanese kombu means sea tangle． Part 2Utilization of wind power for the sustainable development of seafood resources in the fishing harbor　－fish-growing facility and ice-making plantSummaryThe purpose of this article is to refer to a possibility of reconstructing fishing industries in the rural area by deploying wind power station (WPS). Kaminokuni-town WPSS were constructed to supply electricity to its fish-feeding facility which grows sea abalone and other fish. This aquaculture facility needs very much electricity because juvenile abalone can grow only in the suitable temperature of water. WPSs supply electricity to their heat pump and other apparatus. After they grow 5mm large, they are put down into under water that is calm, isolated by concrete blocks called ‘tetra pod’ from the outer ocean. When WPSs produce more electricity than it consumes, surplus electricity runs to the grid, yielding substantial revenue. JF Hasaki WPS supplies electricity to the ice-making facility for fishing boats. Electricity does not really go to the facility but goes to the grid and the surplus electricity is sold to the electricity company, offsetting it from electricity consumed. JF Hasaki WPS is one of the rare cases to supply electricity to the ice-making facility around the world. INTRODUCTIONIn this article two major Japanese experiences are examined relating to activating fishing industry through utilizing wind power in rural fishery communities. They are Kaminokuni town in Hokkaido and Japanese fishery co-operative organization JF Hasaki in Ibaragi prefecture near Metropolitan Tokyo, both of them having a vision of activating fishery and surviving. The former Kaminokuni town WPS was constructed and owned by autonomous municipality Kaminokuni town and the latter JF Hasaki WPS was constructed and owned by fishermen’s co-operative, something like Denmark model of characteristic owned by citizen individuals.Generally speaking, local governments have a certain kind of purposes to be pursued in their locating area relating to local industries including agriculture, forestry and fishery as a result of economic expansion which tended to concentrate to Metropolitan Tokyo. In the following chapters constructions of wind power stations in the two communities are investigated and discussed how they contributed to fostering fishing industry. Two fishing communities of course have been envisaging and dreaming of reconstructing regional development coming true in their mind since the past difficult days of decreasing population and devastating areas. Wind energy and fishing - a few pre-studiesPrior to this study, a pioneering study was conducted on the chief conditions for the growth of fish and shrimp relating to water quality and water temperature. Its results were that ‘water quality depends upon the degree of water pollution and the amount of dissolved oxygen. And the effects of dissolved oxygen on aquaculture and methods for utilizing wind energy to enhance dissolved oxygen and to increase fishpond temperatures were shown 1. A precious study is found on the construction of wind - diesel hybrid system in a small fishing village of Canary Islands that supplies electricity for desalination plant, freezer and ice-producing plant 2.As a Japanese researcher points out in his study about the conditions and subjects on utilization of natural energy in fishing ports and communities, ‘the introduction of natural energy in the fishing ports and communities can contribute to the reduction of the cost of electricity in the fishing ports’ facilities and communities in addition to conservation of the earth environment.And it can be expected that facilities like aquaculture, port-cleaning and deep water pumping which have hitherto been hesitated to construct because of their high costs will be promoted to build by natural energy supplying for them’ 3. It also could be of crucial importance to avoid global warming by utilizing natural and renewable energy and to minimize heavy costs of diesel generation in the rural area and small islands that have no main grid system. Fish feeding instead of fishing with huge fishing boats is healthy for our damaged Gaia. From Gaian point of view artificial fish, seaweed and shellfish feeding are favorable for her. In such an area having no grid system, fishing industries should be activated their productive forces by using wind and / or photovoltaic hybrid system or other forms of combination of renewable energy to help their local economy and life to get a sustainable development and a high quality of living.Kaminokuni town - aquaculture and wind powerThe first case study is the Kaminokuni town WPS and its related fishery facility, the sea abalone aquaculture on shore and aquaculture farm in the off shore open ocean 4. Kaminokuni that is equivalent of English ‘Province (Kuni) of God (Kami)’ is 6,172 inhabited (as of March 2009) small town having four and one branch fishing ports facing the Japan Sea in the southwest Hokkaido. Outline of the wind power station is as follows:Date of construction: 11 November 1998Investment: 335,000,000 yen (US $ 4,000,000 as of 22 November, 2011 foreign exchange rate)Scale and standard of the wind power station: Horizontal axis and propeller adjustable blade style (Two turbines), Power rate　　　500kW/150kW, Speed of blade 32rpm/21.3rpm, Rotor diameter 38m, Nacelle height 38mManufacturer: Japanese MITSUBISHI HEAVY INDUSTRIES, LTDThe 7.0 meter/second wind speed and the dominant north west strong wind called ‘Tabakaze’, a compound word of a bundle (Taba) and wind (Kaze), in the winter season are almost the same as those of neighboring Setana town that has the same aquaculture vision utilizing the seabed under off-shore wind turbines as an aquaculture farm. In the summer season southeast strong wind called ‘Yamase’ which means the wind that blows from the mountains (‘Yama’ in Japanese). Kaminokuni town has an aquaculture farm aiming at breeding urchin, abalone, flatfish and other fish in this calm area of ocean.Kaminokuni town constructed WPS in 1998 to supply electricity to the aquaculture center to supply young abalone and other fish for the aquaculture farm. The total investment of WPS is 39,634 thousand yen (US $ 466,282), and its financial resources are shown as follows:Hokkaido subsidy - 218,052 (214,700) yenNEDO subsidy - 83,382 yenTown’s debt - 38,200In case of constructing wind power station it is popular to get a 45% NEDO (26% in case of private company or developer) subsidy and borrow money (debt) from central government’s financiering organization, but in this case of Kaminokuni it could utilize Hokkaido local government’s subsidy of 218,052 thousand yen remaining 38,200 thousand yen depending on debt.Needless to say, Kaminokuni case of constructing WPS was superior in comparison to the popular case of constructing WPSs including JF Hasaki WPS which is examined in the next chapter on the cost performance and speculated future cash flow.Kaminokuni town owned-WPSs began to generate electricity in 1999 and yielded 2,757,137 kWh in 1999, 3,222,940 kWh in 2000 and 3,168,730 kWh in 2001, less in 2002–2004 and 2007-2008 because of accidents and damages from lightning, characteristic of the weather of the area facing the Japan Sea and the low wind speed 6.5m/s (2002) - 6.9m/s (2003) and 6.8m/s (2007) - 6.7m/s (2008).The aquaculture center has capacity that grows three hundred thousand 30 mm juvenile abalone to about 50mm mature abalones and then continues to breed them in the aquaculture farm and sells them to the market or end user. It needs much electricity to keep water warm and constant during both winter and summer seasons for abalone.If the wind power station generates more electricity than the aquaculture center consumes, surplus electricity is sold to the electricity retail company via grid and wind power station earns revenue. The balance sheet of generated electricity and consumed can be seen in the document of Kaminokuni town but it cannot be presented because of format limitation. Complicated account system involved in it as follows: According to the data of 2007 fiscal year, electricity yield was 2,266,297 kWh (1). This yield equals to 25,358,385 yen (2). On the other hand, wind turbines consumed electricity of 705,857 kWh (3) that is equivalent of 7,940,201 yen (4). Total purchased electricity is 1,213,489 kWh (3) + (5) = (7) or 13,654,867 yen (8).Basic electricity tariff (fee) must be accounted calculating cash balance, total sum being 4,573,143 yen (9). As a result, the amount of electricity sold is 1,560,440 kWh (1)-(3), or 17,418,184 yen (2)-(4) = (10). As the sum of payment is 10,287,809 yen (6) + (9) = (11), cash balance is 7,130,375 yen (10)-(11). It should be additionally noted that the rate of supply of electricity to the aquaculture center is 31.1% (3) / (1) and the rate of electricity self-consumed by the aquaculture center is 47.0% (4) / ((4)+(a)+(b)) respectively.That is why Kminokuni aquaculture wind power station should be called a wind - grid hybrid and semi-autonomous system of generating electricity. The comparison of electricity (kWh) which was consumed by the aquaculture center from the wind power station with electricity which was purchased by the aquaculture center via the electricity retail company’s grid can be shown. Self-consumption electricity is much larger than purchased. Forty six to fifty six percent of electricity generated has been supplied and self-consumed by the aquaculture center. The rate of self-sufficiency adds up to about 50 percent.The difficult situations of Japanese fishery are not mentioned here because of paper space but it is sufficient to note that supplying electricity to a heavy electricity consuming facilities could diminish the cost of fishery and help it to survive in these difficult days. Humongous sum of investment has been implemented for the aquaculture in Kaminokuni as follows:Kaminokuni ocean farm: 4,992,000,000 yen, management Hokkaido, years 1992-1999Aquaculture center: 879,000,000 yen, Kaminokuni town, 1999Wind power station: 335,000,000 yen, Kaminokuni town, 1998Aquaculture subcidy (cost of buying the young of avalone): 227,284,000 yen, Hokkaido, Kaminokuni town, Some ten yearsFeeding test project: 1,890,000 yen, Kaminokuni town, 2006Total: 6,435,174,000 yen, (Source: Kaminokuni town documents)The total output of abalone produced in the years 2000-2005 in the aquaculture center added up to 1,007,400 of which 753,000 were sold to Kaminokuni fishery production co-operative. One hundred and fifty thousand/year of abalone was supplied for the thirteen members of the co-operative and they had to pay money to the town.At the beginning of the inauguration (2006) of the abalone aquaculture the number of producing members were thirty, decreasing in number year by year now thirteen.According to the document of Kaminokuni town assembly, a young member of the producing co-operative abandoned to continue to feed abalone because of the difficult circumstances of management. This is a regretful thing for the future of Kaminokuni fishery. To overcome this difficulty some discussions are argued below. JF Hasaki - Ice manufacturing and wind powerJapan Fishery Hasaki is a fishermen’s co-operative who make a living by fishing and manufacturing seafood goods at Hasaki fishing port located on the left hand side of Tone River estuary. They constructed a wind power station in 2005 in order to supply electricity to their ice-making factory (next page photo) consuming enough electricity to manufacture 200 tons of ice necessary for the big fishing boats.Outline of wind power station is as follows: ・Machine: Mitsubishi Heavy Industry MWT-1000A One turbine. ・Rate of power: 1000kW・Tower height: 68 meter・Rotor diameter: 61.4meter・Cut-in wind speed: 3m/s・Cut-out wind speed: 25m/s・Rate of wind speed: 12.5m/s・Estimated generation of electricity: 1,980 thousand kWh (590 standard households’ sonsumption)・Opening: April 2005JF Hasaki fishing port has consumed much electricity, e.g. in 2002 845,472 kWh, for the ice-making factory, 120,348 kWh for cargo facility and 63,049 for lighting, the first ice-making facility being the heaviest consumer. The NNE wind is dominant all the year except in summer and the wind speed averages 6.4m/s annually. Although JF Hasaki’s WPS was constructed in 2005 after the enactment of the Japanese RPS law, the selling price of electricity remained as 11.34 yen by the contract between JF Hasaki and the electricity retail company. This equals to earlier selling price e.g. of Tomamae town wind power station in Hokkaido (11.95 yen) which has already began to operate before the enactment of RPS law.The reason why the price was set at this tariff was not clear but JF Hasaki WPS yielded 7,674,616 kWh (average 2,558,205 kWh) of electricity sold during the last three years (2005, 2006, 2007). This is equivalent of 84,307,899 yen (average 28,102,633 yen) of revenue during the same periods. If JF Hasaki WPS’s selling price is as cheap as Setana WPS’s price as contracted before the enactment of RPS law (2003), three years’ revenue of JF Hasaki might be 72,858,678 yen, or 11,449,221 yen less than the revenue earned by the applied selling price. JF Hasaki decided to sell all its electricity generated to Tokyo Electricity Company and buy electricity for its ice-making factory. So if JF Hasaki produces surplus revenue after paying operation and maintenance, depreciation, wages and other costs, it can use this surplus to pay for electricity used to manufacture ice. That is why they call this account system ‘Chisan Chisho’ which means self-consumption of electricity, regionally produced and regionally consumed. By using electricity datum of all the years, average sum of electricity consumption can be obtained as 1,063,991 kWh for ten years 1993-2002. On the other hand, the average electricity sold for three years 2005-2007 can be obtained as 2,478,186 kWh and 28,102,633 yen respectively. Therefore, the estimated price of electricity sold is 11.3 yen/kWh. Hence the estimated average electricity consumed by port facilities including ice-making factory is 12,065,658 yen (1,063,991kWh×11.3yen).This sum adds up to the economy of wind power station. JF Hasaki wind power station is not an autonomous wind power system but a grid connected system that sells all the generated electricity to the electricity retail company, Tokyo Denryoku. Taking it into consideration, JF Hasaki wind power station powerfully sustains its management of fishery.Results and DiscussionsTwo Japanese examples were examined and drawn powerful contribution for fishery facing the difficult circumstances. This is the ‘coming-out party’ of wind energy for fishing and wind energy utilization for fishing port has crossed a threshold, making it realistic.But as mentioned above, there remain some problems that encompass the fishing communities. Although wind power stations contributed to reduce the cost of electricity, they still need to fundamentally reconstruct the ways and means of fishing industries and combine them to the usage of renewable energy. This is not a place to offer such a vision but it may be mentioned that seafood should be manufactured by value added way of sustainable technology. In the other regional community abalone is sold in the package that is one night dried for the market or for the tourists.Fortunately, a hotel of Japan’s famous hot spring site ‘Kinugawa Onsen’ began to buy Kaminokuni abalone. And in the case of JF Hasaki new seafood-processing systems that consume much energy is needed to be changed from the standpoint of sanitation and food safety.All these directions to be developed are more or less the same with other fishing community in the developed countries and in the remote area and island. The renewable energy generation system that can well be applied to those communities should be researched and developed including technology and socio-economic analysis here examined. Unfortunately Hasaki fishing port was damaged by the giant earthquake and tsunami (photo) which hit east coast of northern Japan march 11th 2011. Fukushima nuclear power station was also destroyed by giant tsunami and stopped to generate electricity but the wind power stations which stand along the coastlines of Ibaragi, Fukushima, Miyagi and Iwate prefectures were safe and continued to generate electricity for people in the dark shelter which lost electricity. Solar panel also provided tiny electricity for portable phones and electric car was used for transporting patients. It was renewable energy that probed to be helpful in such an urgent occasion like awful disaster not a fossil fuel and nuclear energy. Notes1 Wang Chunrong, et al, ‘Utilizing wind energy to develop aquaculture industry’, “Integrated energy systems in China - The cold Northeastern region experience”, FAO CORPORATE DOCUMENT REPOSITRY, 19942 J. A. Carta, J. González, C. Gómez, ‘Operating results of a wind–diesel system which supplies the full energy needs of an isolated village community in the Canary Islands’ The Energy Journal. Vol. 22, No. 3. IAEE.3 Yoshiaki KATO, ‘The present conditions and subject on utilization of natural energy (wind power energy) in fishing ports and communities’ , Research papers, “Creating the abundant environment of coast line area”, The Japanese Institute of Technology on Fishing Ports, Grounds and Communities, 20014 In this paper many documents relating to wind power stations and the situation of the two communities could be available which were kindly offered by local governments and fishery co-operative. Part 3Japanese Renewable Portfolio Standard and the Management of Local Government Wind Power StationsPurpose of research－A Quantum jump of wind power energy－It has become more and more important to utilize renewable and natural energy such as wind power, photovoltaic, biomass, tidal power and small hydro as we realize that we must reduce carbon emissions to escape a global warming catastrophe and at the same time to cure our earth Gaia from her disease. Among them wind power has seen a quantum jump in USA, European countries, India, and P. R. China, in the last 20 years.Japanese wind power stations (WPSs) have about ten or more years’ history and now yield 1,600 thousand kW of electricity. It is very important to realize a true direction of developing WPS in the near future. Figure 1 illustrates the Japanese accumulated WPSs’ capacity and the number of turbines as of May 2008. RPS & REFITIn 2003 Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) regime started and Japanese WPSs entered into a new era of developing new kind of energy but witnessed some difficulties relating to the lower price of electricity and the limitations of selling electricity to the electricity supply company (ESC).First we illustrate the European RPS and REFIT systems. Look at Table 1 (RPS in European countries and USA) and Table 2 (REFIT in European countries and USA). Feature of European countries’ RPS can be seen in the increasing rate of obligatory quota of utilizing renewable energy in recent future by electricity retail companies. In England the obligatory quota was 3% in 2002 and is anticipated to be 10.4 % in 2010-26 of gross selling electricity. Obligatory person or entity is the electricity retail company as in Japanese RPS. But the second and crucially Japanese critical feature is the absence of obligation of buying price by retail companies as is seen in the next table of REFIT. Under the REFIT system ESCs have to buy renewable energy based electricity at fixed prices and it is said that REFIT system encourages the renewable energy developers and small investors to invest in wind projects thus contributing to the quantum jump of wind power stations construction. But in the Japanese RPS system, ESCs are free to decide the price of buying new electric energy so to speak at will. Next, obligatory electricity are hydro（under 20MW of existing utility）, solar, wind power, geo-thermal, tide, wave, biomass (excluding mixed burning）.SETANA WPS ANALYSISSetana is a small fisheries town facing the Japan Sea near Hakodate or Sapporo in South West Hokkaido. As is seen in Figure 2 which shows Japanese major ports having WPSs, Setana town is the third largest site of WPS concentration in Japan (Figure 3). In fact Setana started the first ambitious offshore WPSs construction project of WPS in Japan. We can see blades of two offshore turbines turning faster than onshore commercial WPSs’ blades. In general a commercial WPS needs a minimum of 5.5 m/s of annual average wind speed to sustain its good management. Setana’s offshore WPSs have 7.4m/s of annual average wind speed. Consequently as can be seen in Table 3, its capacity factor is slightly above 40%. This is one of the highest classes of capacity factor in Japan. The dominant wind direction is WNW in winter and ESE in summer.WPSs started to generate electricity in April 2004 and until now generated 14,468,697 kW of electricity. But it was unfortunate for Setana town that it took time to begin to operate its WPS, 2-3 years delay, because the wholesale selling price was reduced by ESC when the RPS law was enforced in the year 2003. It took much time to assess the environment around the WPS site. It was unable to use RPS price and so we had to estimate it instead. The results are the estimated price/kW (average 9.8 yen) . This price is rather low and uneven compared to Tomamae or Shounai WPSs’ earlier constructed than Setana WPSs comparatively high selling prices of 14 or 11 yen. As is seen in Table 4, Tomamae’s contract price with ESC should be higher by a minimum 3 yen to reconstruct WPSs without borrowing. This low price may compel Setana town to restructure its local finance especially by re-borrowing of debt.Y1: revenue of Table 5 is revenue from selling electricity of each WPS. Y1+2: revenue is a break-even point of each WPS calculated by using each WPSs’ special accounts. In economics, specifically cost accounting, the break-even point (BEP) is the point at which costs or expenses and revenue are equal: there is no net loss or gain, and one has "broken even". Therefore has not made a profit or a loss. P1 is a wholesale selling price contracted with ESCs. Y1+2 minus Y1 equals to Y2: price which means revenue to be added to revenue from the contracted selling price or wholesale price to be added to the contracted price. It should be emphasized that the selling price under pre RPS regime was so low that RGs’ WPSs could be reconstructed by themselves. We fear that Japanese RPS drives ESCs to tighten buying price flexibility for WPSs.ADDITIONAL VALUES OF WPSWPSs have another dimension of value along with electricity generation value per se. This paper will refer to the results of those investigations on the ‘secondary effects’ of WPSs’ construction and their management.The number of visitors is not so large until now but the success of offshore WPS was certified via and through these people and mass-media. Staff in Setana city told us that Japanese Broadcasting Network, NHK interviewed him about its program which helped boost the number of visitors based on an investigation to hotel stuffs. Figure 3 illustrates the trend of the number of tourists in Setana town.FEEDING FISH UTILIZING WPSs’ SEA-BEDIt should be noted that they are trying to utilize WPS’s sea-bed space to feed fish. Recently fish and seaweed have been decreasing in number because of the devastation of the mountains. Mountains and forests supply plenty of minerals (especially Fe) for fish and seaweed to live. Stuff of Setana town wants to make use of WPSs’ sea-bed as a place to feed fish. I heard that it was not able to connect WPSs by wire or some infrastructure diminishing intensity of WPSs. But I hope WPSs’ sea-bed should be utilized as a place to feed algae or some kind of seaweed which produces dimethyl sulfide that in turn make tiny particle from it forming white clouds reflecting sunshine. Such a photovoltaic plants contribute to cease global warming effect by absorbing carbon dioxide through photosynthesis and cooling earth’s ocean where algae can live. Global heating not global warming is awfully dangerous to Gaia’s health. BREAK-EVEN POINT ANALYSIS OF WPSsResults of a case study of Tsu-city Hisai WPS by using break-even point analysis are shown in Table 5 and Figure 4. As is seen in them revenue of electricity sales is 86,852,000 yen. Fixed cost, variable cost and break-even point are 32,170,530 yen, 41,757,000 yen and 61,959,748 yen respectively. And the resulting benefit’ or ‘profit of WPS’ is 12,924,470 yen in Table 5. Tsu city Hisai WPS has a plentiful supply of good wind on the mountain top of Aoyamakougen (Blue mountains Highlands). But that is not to say its selling price is high enough to sustain its facilities and reconstruct them after depreciating all of the remaining value of the facilities. Break-even point of WPSs indicates only the theoretical point of minimum amount of revenue to maintain it. The average revenue of 86,852,000 yen for the 2005 operational year is only slightly higher than the ‘theoretical’ minimum break-even point of revenue. As operational years pass by expenditure will probably rise through unexpected accidents or troubles.We investigated the case of Joetsu city Nadachi WPS. The methodology of investigation is the same as with the former Tsu city case. According to the results of the analysis 5,114 thousand yen of revenue is very small because of the accidents caused by lightening strike which stopped the WPS for about one and half years.It costs, we hear, about one hundred thousand yen to repair the machine and exchange broken blades. The resulting break-even point is higher at 169,903 thousand yen and the profit is deficit -8,958 thousand yen. This is an abnormal case of break-even point because of one and half a year halted operation. The accidents and troubles with the machine so to speak ‘broke’ the break-even point. Nadachi WPS has a great secondary tourism effect in spite of troubles of machine. As is seen in Figure 5, tourist numbers were 440 to 544 thousand at the beginning of its opening.BRIEF CONCLUSIONS AND DEVELOPMENT1. Japanese Regional Government Owned Wind Power Stations not only generate ‘clean’ electricity to contribute to a ‘low carbon society’ but bring many ‘secondary’ and critical effects to the regional economy and society. 2. ESCs should buy electricity generated by renewable energy such as wind power at a higher price or central government should enact a law that clearly obligates ESCs to buy at a higher fixed price. And this was done in August 2012 in the midst of electricity crisis after Fukushima nuclear power station’s disaster.3. RGs’ WPSs including commercial WPSs should be fostered strategically to create a low carbon society which is gentle for wounded Gaia giving favorable treatment to renewable energy. 4. It is necessary for policy makers to envisage not the RPS scheme but the more mighty REFIT system. 5. The tourism effect of WPSs may be further encouraged and developed by a sophisticated policy and procedure of local authorities and people.6. Japanese WPS tourism is still relatively under developed. Now that we have an experiences of rural agriculture green tourism, WPSs should have many diversified opportunities not only to create a low carbon society but also to enhance the possibility of a new dimension of social and economic structure Gian Socio-Economy.

2020.07.25

考察　コロナ・パンデミック大不況　Ⅰ

今回の不況を「コロナ大不況」と呼ぶとして、この不況を経済学が分析する手法は一体どんなものになるだろうかと、2020年2月以降考え続けてきた。景気循環論的な指標はーー倒産件数、各種株価、業績、解雇・雇止め・派遣切り、閉店などどれを取ってみても世界的に進行している不況の兆候を物語っているーー世界共通、悪化の一途をたどっている。つい最近の出来事だが、岡山県の真庭市の病院が倒産した。日産自動車も危ないし、老舗のアパレルメーカーも立ち行かなくなった。航空会社は新規採用を中止しているし、飲食店はあいつで店をたたんでいる。エンタテインメント関係は、まったく仕事がない状態が続いている。　1930年代の世界大恐慌を、20年代のいわゆる相対的安定期の好況後の「過剰生産恐慌」したがって、生産と消費の間の均衡をとる周期的恐慌とだとすると、第2次世界大戦をはさんで、その後の世界経済の拡大へ至る序曲だったということできるのではあるが、今回の恐慌は、資本主義経済の内的衝動が生み出した恐慌とは異なり、感染症によって「消費と生産が分断」されるという、本質的に異なった動因を本質としている。消費と生産の分断は恐慌の抽象的可能性を示す全資本主義時代からの景気シグナルではあるが、今回の感染症によって「生産と消費の分断」はドラスティックなものとなった。この点に感染症不況の特質がありそうだ。今回のいわゆる「コロナ不況」は経済学的な分析に値しない、「事故」なのか。そうではないと思う。　ちょっと思いつきになるのだが、コロナ感染拡大における景気後退局面（recession）の特徴を振り返っておきたい。まず、世界経済全般は、中・米の貿易戦争を背景として、中国経済の停滞とそれが影響する日本への影響、原油安を反映にした米経済の不活性などがあったが、世界経済は全体として好調に推移していたように思う。リーマンショック以降、世界経済は「相対的安定期」にあった。IT、AIなど技術革新も進みすぎるくらい急速に進化を遂げていた。1920年代の相対的安定期と状況が似ている。　もちろん、北朝鮮は経済制裁の影響で息絶え絶えの状態にはあったが。日本も、昨年（2019）秋の消費税税率引き上げ、西日本・関東（千葉･伊豆）集中豪雨による豪雨災害の影響で若干まだら模様で、年明けの四半期GDP値がダウン、見通しも必ずしもよくなかったところへ、1月、武漢発の新型コロナ（COVID‐19）が東京へ上陸したことで、一気に感染が各地で拡大し、4月には非常事態宣、5月末には、いったん収束の気配を見せたが、7月に入り再び急拡大し、事実上の非常事態宣言（関東圏の急拡大が地方大都市へ感染し、さらにgo toキャンペーンがそれを加速している）が発せられた状態で、企業の相次ぐ倒産、倒産寸前、廃業、その寸前と言った状況が、持続化給付金の使途限定と言う不十分さゆえ、経済崩壊の歯止めとして機能しているとは全くいえない情況へと立ち至っている。　新型コロナは、初期の国境封鎖にもかかわらず、検疫の網をかいくぐって世界各地へ飛び火し、感染者と死者の急増を招き、相次ぐ強権によるロックダウン等の市民生活･経済への介入も奏効せず、ウイルスの闊歩スルを傍観せざるを得ない情況である。　ワクチンによる集団免疫形成は未だ夢の段階で、ワクチンが有効だとしても、有効期間は限定的であり、インフルエンザと同じく｢ウイルスはいつもあなたの傍にいる｣状態での「共生」を強いられている。　こうした状況下で、濃淡の差はあるものの、「感染症対策と経済を同時にうまく回転させる」というスローガンないし標語が作られ、感染症対策の一方の車輪となっている。　経済をまわしていくとは、自由主義経済の中で、一体どういうことなのか、そのことは、これまでとはちがった労働や経済の仕組みのことには違いないのだが、これまで、以下のようなことがいわれてきたように思う。　オンライン（テレ）・ワーク（学校・職場・スポーツ･エンタメ、3蜜を避ける環境・外出の自粛・国によっては強制的禁止）、国境での水際対策などであり、これらの措置は我われの世界経済が、第二次世界大戦以降に作り上げてきた、国際経済の根幹を軌道修正するものだ。　人・物・金・情報が回らなければ、経済も社会も回らないことは子どもでも知っている。モノ･金･情報を回すのは人だ。人の動きが止まることは、この「人・モノ・カネ・情報」の流れを遮断することを意味する。　世界資本主義体制は、感染のパンデミックによって、人→モノ→カネ→情報の順序で経済は萎縮しており、縮小均衡へ向かって、負の連鎖をたどっているように見える。新型コロナウイルスが蔓延し続け、地球人類の間に常態化するということは、世界経済がきずいてきた資本主義経済の拡大再生産パターンが、その一部を放棄せざるを得ない状況に突入しているのではないか。　このことに、多くの評論家やコメンテーターたちは気づいていない。局側が用意した進行シナリオを読み上げているだけだ。彼らにも仕事が回ってこなくなった。新型コロナウイルスが感染しやすい情況を作った資本主義経済の濃密空間的経済社会構成を放棄すると言うことは、この拡大再生産という資本主義の原理を放棄することであって、オリンピック･パラリンピックもそうだが、経済の単純再生産的均衡（縮小均衡）を目指すもに他ならない。　経済評論家たちは、経済を回すすべについて自己PRすることに余念がないが、口からでまかせの空理空論は感染症のいわゆる専門家の「出たとこ勝負」の、「当たるも八卦当たらぬも八卦」の感染症大流行の時代に出来た「占い予言師」となんら変わるところはない。（続く）

2020.07.25

河井夫妻に1億5000万円を出した自民本部は交付罪に問われる？

自民党本部から破格の1億5000万円が河合夫妻の事務所に交付された。そしてこの金を「原資」にして、100人近い政界・議会関係に配られ、実質買収行為が行われた。だが詳細は今後の検察の証拠固めを待たねばならない。杏里議員の女性後援会長には「安倍さんからです」といって現金を渡した。公職選挙法は、221条で、買収目的の資金等の交付を禁止している。（第五）これが交付罪だ。自民党本部と河井夫妻が事実上の「共謀」で交付罪に問われかねないことは自明の理だろう。　交付罪を規定した公職選挙法の条項を挙げておこう。第二百二十一条　次の各号に掲げる行為をした者は、三年以下の懲役若しくは禁錮こ又は五十万円以下の罰金に処する。一　当選を得若しくは得しめ又は得しめない目的をもつて選挙人又は選挙運動者に対し金銭、物品その他の財産上の利益若しくは公私の職務の供与、その供与の申込み若しくは約束をし又は供応接待、その申込み若しくは約束をしたとき。三　投票をし若しくはしないこと、選挙運動をし若しくはやめたこと又はその周旋勧誘をしたことの報酬とする目的をもつて選挙人又は選挙運動者に対し第一号に掲げる行為をしたとき。五　第一号から第三号までに掲げる行為をさせる目的をもつて選挙運動者に対し金銭若しくは物品の交付、交付の申込み若しくは約束をし又は選挙運動者がその交付を受け、その交付を要求し若しくはその申込みを承諾したとき。　河井夫妻と自民党本部が一体であるとした場合、河井＝自民本部は交付罪の適用を受けることは明らか。しかし、溝手氏の10倍の選挙資金を交付したことは、異常な金額であり、自民党石破議員が中国新聞の取材に答えて言うように、「交付」の意思決定は、幹事長以上の要人すなわち官邸ということになろう。「交付罪」に当たる判例上の理由ははっきりしており、また、もっと具体的な罪状になるかは、学会での解釈を踏まえて明示することができる。この点は香川大学の法学の専門家が詳細かつ網羅的な研究論文を表しており、概況的な交付罪妥当性は今現在で伝えらっれる資金の動きとその具体的使われ方の判断で、いまだ状況証拠ではあるが、明確にすることができる。

2020.07.04