Harley Davidson (HOG) Stock Draws Fresh Price Target Split After Turnaround Progress

Price targets for Harley-Davidson have shifted into a wide US$19 to US$37 range, with several recent moves into the low to mid US$30s. That change reflects a split view, where some analysts point to progress on the turnaround and Back to Bricks plan, while others question how much of that improvement is already captured in the stock. As you read on, you will see how this evolving price target narrative can help you track the next phase of the Harley-Davidson story.

Analyst Price Targets don't always capture the full story. Head over to our Company Report to find new ways to value Harley-Davidson.

What Wall Street Has Been Saying

🐂 Bullish Takeaways

• Citi has moved from years of caution to a more positive stance on Harley-Davidson, upgrading the stock in early October and then lifting its price target again to US$37, citing changing conditions and what it sees as a meaningful cost savings story with possible earnings support from LiveWire.

• DA Davidson raised its target to US$33 after Q2 results and a guidance update, highlighting management progress with the Back to Bricks plan and reporting better dealer productivity and sentiment toward Harley-Davidson.

• Baird increased its target to US$32 and noted that results point to a turnaround that is building momentum, which supports the cluster of recent targets in the low to mid US$30s.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

• Morgan Stanley lifted its target only modestly to US$19 and kept an Underweight rating, which anchors the lower end of the current range and underscores ongoing concerns about valuation and execution risk for Harley-Davidson.

• Several firms including UBS and earlier Citi and Baird reports maintain Neutral ratings despite higher targets, which signals that some analysts see progress already reflected in the stock with less conviction around further upside.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there's more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!

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How This Changes the Fair Value For Harley-Davidson

• Fair Value has moved from US$28.18 to US$29.80.

• Revenue Growth has shifted from a 1.86% decline to an expected 0.30% increase.

• Net Profit Margin has changed from 6.48% to 6.58%.

• Future P/E has adjusted from 12.95x to 13.35x.

• The Discount Rate remains effectively unchanged at 12.54%.

Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative

Narratives connect Harley-Davidson's business story to analyst forecasts and fair value, so you can see how new information changes the investment case over time. They update automatically when fresh earnings, guidance or risk data comes through.