This article first appeared on GuruFocus .
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Q3 Sales:EUR402 million, down from both the previous quarter and the same period last year.
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Year-to-Date Sales:EUR1.23 billion, almost EUR150 million lower than last year, split between lower volumes, lower selling prices, and adverse currency effects.
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Comparable EBIT (Q3):EUR6 million, up from EUR3 million in Q2 fourth consecutive quarter of improvement.
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Comparable EBITDA (Q3):Stable at EUR30 million.
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Year-to-Date Comparable Operating Result:Improved by more than EUR40 million to close to breakeven.
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Year-on-Year Comparable Operating Result:Improved by around EUR50 million, driven mainly by lower variable and fixed costs.
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Tariff Refunds:Roughly EUR10 million included in Q3 lower variable costs; not expected to recur in Q4.
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Emission Allowance Sales:Around EUR5 million higher than in Q2.
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Transformation Program:Annualized EBITDA run-rate of around EUR150 million against a EUR200 million target; realized EBITDA impact of EUR54 million in the quarter, cumulative impact almost EUR100 million.
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Cash Flow from Operations:EUR22 million in Q3, supported by earnings recovery and positive working capital contribution (inventories).
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Cash Flow After Investing:EUR32 million, reflecting a very low level of investments during the quarter.
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Liquidity:EUR546 million, including a fully undrawn EUR250 million revolving credit facility.
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Interest-Bearing Debt:Roughly EUR600 million; next year's bond maturity refinancing secured through a bridge facility.
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Net Debt:Decreased to a bit over EUR300 million.
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Leverage:Improved to 4.6 times, still above the 2.5 times long-term target.
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Consumer Packaging:Q3 delivery volumes stable year-on-year and from Q2; year-to-date volumes declined mainly in the Americas but recently stabilized; average selling prices increased.
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Retail Packaging:Year-to-date white kraftliner deliveries up 7%, with growth in both Europe and the Americas; average selling prices increased.
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Market Pulp:Most challenging business; demand and pricing subdued; year-to-date pulp deliveries declined at both Metsa Board and Metsa Fibre; Joutseno mill in market-related downtime since end of March.
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European Folding Boxboard Market Share:Increased to 29% in September from 25% at the end of Q2.
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Q4 Outlook:Operating cash flow expected lower than Q3; paperboard volumes expected to decrease seasonally; maintenance costs expected lower despite extended Kemi shutdown; Metsa Fibre result expected to improve from Q3.
Release Date: October 29, 2026
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript .
Positive Points
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Metsa Board Oyj ( FRA:MSRB ) reported its fourth consecutive quarter of improved comparable EBIT, rising to EUR6 million in Q3.
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The paperboard market balance improved, supporting higher prices, with capacity closures in Europe and North America tightening supply.
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Metsa Board Oyj ( FRA:MSRB )'s transformation program delivered an annual EBITDA run-rate improvement of EUR148 million, with cumulative realized EBITDA impact of almost EUR100 million.
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The company increased its share of the European folding boxboard market to 29% in September from 25% at the end of Q2.
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Metsa Board Oyj ( FRA:MSRB ) maintains strong liquidity of EUR546 million, including a fully undrawn EUR250 million revolving credit facility, and has secured refinancing for next year's bond maturity.
Negative Points
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Metsa Board Oyj ( FRA:MSRB )'s Q3 sales declined to EUR402 million from the previous quarter and the same period last year, with year-to-date sales down almost EUR150 million.
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The Husum mill remains loss-making due to low utilization, and current performance is not where it needs to be.
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Market pulp remains the most challenging business, with subdued demand and pricing, and Metsa Fibre's Joutseno mill has been in market-related downtime since the end of March.
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Q4 operating cash flow is expected to weaken due to an increase in working capital and the extended annual maintenance shutdown at Kemi.
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Metsa Board Oyj ( FRA:MSRB )'s leverage improved to 4.6 times but remains above the long-term target of 2.5 times.
Q & A Highlights
Q: With the folding boxboard market balance improving, how does Metsa Board view its position heading into the 2027 annual price negotiations with European customers? A: CEO Esa Kaikkonen said capacity adjustments of roughly 1 million tonnes across the SBS and FBB markets (about half in the US, the rest in Europe) have meaningfully improved the balance, and the effect is even larger when white kraftliner is included. With roughly 40% of FBB volumes tied to annual framework agreements and high cost pressure on market players, the company enters negotiations in a much better position than a year ago, though he declined to forecast the outcome.
Q: Your variable costs declined sequentially while many Nordic and continental peers likely face rising costs. Is there a market share shift toward the north given fossil energy cost increases? A: CEO Esa Kaikkonen said Nordic players are clearly in a better position, and Metsa Board especially so, being about 90% energy self-sufficient and more than 90% fossil-free. Customer discussions show reliability of supply is the number one priority for brand owners, which provides good grounds for negotiations, though he said it is too early to say whether this translates into a structural gain for Nordic producers.
Q: With paperboard operating rates still low, particularly at Husum, what further measures can close the gapmore acquisitions like Winschoten or deeper cost cuts? A: CEO Esa Kaikkonen said the Finnish mills have strong order books and Husum is the mill suffering from low utilization. The company is patient and building momentum, noting Husum BM1 is the largest FBB machine in the market and among the most competitive, while new capacity is slow to qualify with end users. Transformation program measures target Husum, and the company remains open to inorganic growth in FBB and consumer packaging as part of the solution.
Q: Do rising US SBS prices open new export opportunities from Husum to the US? A: CEO Esa Kaikkonen said bluntly yes. US SBS mill operating rates were around 84%, supporting pricing, and Metsa Board has a 10%30% yield advantage versus SBS. Favorable currency moves, a temporary Canadian mill closure and other curtailments all support the US situation. The company is focusing on food, pharma and branded business in the US, where it already has growing customers, rather than the highly competitive foodservice board segment.
Q: Husum remains loss-makingwhat is the improvement path and how significant is the potential? A: CEO Esa Kaikkonen was clear that Husum is still loss-making and current performance is not where it needs to be, with low utilization the key challenge. Performance is improving on transformation measures and lower wood costs, while additional sheeting capacity in Winschoten supports higher utilization of Husum's FBB capacity in Europe and commercial actions improve pricing and mix. Higher volumes, further transformation benefits, operational efficiencies and better market balance and pricing all offer significant further improvement potential.
Q: Can you elaborate on the EUR10 million tariff refund recorded in Q3 and how it was derived? A: CFO Anssi Tammilehto said the net impact was EUR10 million, based on 2025 and 2026 tariffs paid after IEEPA tariffs were deemed illegal by the US Supreme Court on February 24 this year, with the company then applying for refunds. He declined to disclose further detail, citing commercial arrangements behind the topic.
Q: Emission rights sales were higher in Q3 than in Q1 and Q2is there a specific reason? A: CFO Anssi Tammilehto said emission rights have been sold quite evenly, and with price levels feasible the company decided to sell EUR5 million more than in Q2. He noted such sales are not a one-off and have historically been higher, particularly in 2024 and 2023.
Q: What is the outlook for energy refunds in Q4, and is the lower Q3 depreciation a good run-rate going forward? A: CFO Anssi Tammilehto said energy refunds are expected at approximately the same level as last year, around EUR10 million, though the schemes are changing and being monitored closely. He confirmed the lower Q3 depreciation is a good proxy for the remainder of the year and going forward.
Q: How has Asian competition developed in the FBB markets where you operate, and could it affect pricing? A: CEO Esa Kaikkonen said Asian growth has been around 21% this year, now accounting for roughly 8% of deliveries at about 15,000 tonnes monthly. Metsa Board does not compete in that market, which he described as more speculative, positioning itself on the premium side; it also delivers its own board to China, where buyers purchase for quality reasons.
Q: What is the status of the transformation program and its earnings contribution? A: CFO Anssi Tammilehto said the 10-quarter program reached an annualized EBITDA run-rate of around EUR150 million against the EUR200 million target by the end of Q3, with a realized EBITDA impact of EUR54 million in the quarter and almost EUR100 million cumulative. Savings are measured against the average cost structure from H2 2024 to H1 2025, and commercial actions are expected to become more visible in earnings next year.
Q: What drove the fourth consecutive quarter of improving profitability despite shutdowns, and what is the Q4 outlook? A: CFO Anssi Tammilehto said comparable operating profit rose to EUR6 million from EUR3 million in Q2, with lower variable and fixed costs, lower wood and chemical costs, transformation measures, the Tako mill closure and lower maintenance costs more than offsetting lower prices and adverse currencies. For Q4, CEO Esa Kaikkonen expects seasonally lower paperboard volumes, no repeat of tariff refunds, lower maintenance costs despite the extended Kemi shutdown, and an improved result at Metsa Fibre, while operating cash flow is expected to be lower than Q3.
Q: How is the balance sheet and liquidity positioned, and where does leverage stand? A: CFO Anssi Tammilehto said liquidity remains strong at EUR546 million, including a fully undrawn EUR250 million revolving credit facility, with interest-bearing debt of roughly EUR600 million
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript .
