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Shell's fair value price target has been nudged to £37.91 from £38.90, a modest reset that fine tunes the anchor many analysts use when thinking about the stock. Behind that change sit mixed views, with some analysts highlighting the ARC Resources acquisition and sector wide repricing as reasons to revise targets in multiple currencies, while keeping a close eye on execution and broader oil major valuations. As you read on, you will see how this evolving narrative shapes the way investors track Shell from here.
Stay updated as the Fair Value for Shell shifts by adding it to your watchlist or portfolio . Alternatively, explore our Community to discover new perspectives on Shell.
What Wall Street Has Been Saying
🐂 Bullish Takeaways
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Jefferies lifted its Shell price target to US$122.40 from US$119.70 after adding the ARC Resources acquisition to its model, citing expectations for higher integrated gas earnings and net income over FY26 to FY28.
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HSBC upgraded Shell to Buy from Hold and raised its target to 3,700 GBp from 3,350 GBp, pointing to higher cash flow estimates and what it views as improved medium term upstream growth visibility following the ARC Resources deal.
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TD Cowen, in a Q2 earnings preview, trimmed its Shell target to US$107 from US$110 but kept a Buy rating and highlighted what it sees as pockets of opportunity in oil majors, with Shell included among preferred stocks into earnings season.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
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JPMorgan cut its Shell target to 3,600 GBp from 3,900 GBp while maintaining an Overweight rating, reflecting a recalibration of expectations for the stock even as the firm remains constructive overall.
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Berenberg and Morgan Stanley both reduced Shell price targets, with Berenberg moving to €46 from €47 and Morgan Stanley to 3,495 GBp from 3,589 GBp, underscoring tighter valuation headroom and the need for consistent execution on growth plans.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there's more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!
We've flagged 1 risk for Shell. See which could impact your investment.
How This Changes the Fair Value For Shell
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Fair value is set at £37.91, down from £38.90.
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Revenue growth assumption is 4.42%, unchanged from 4.42%.
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Net profit margin assumption is 8.07%, unchanged from 8.07%.
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Future P/E multiple is 12.47x, reduced from 12.69x.
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Discount rate is held steady at 7.38%.
Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative
Narratives connect Shell's business story to analyst forecasts and fair value, updating as new company developments and research come through. They help you see how individual news items fit into a bigger, forward looking view of the stock.
Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on Shell to stay up to date on:
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How Shell's LNG build out, including projects like LNG Canada and new capacity in Egypt and Trinidad & Tobago, feeds into revenue and earnings expectations.
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The impact of nearly $4b in structural cost reductions and portfolio high grading on margins, returns on capital, and free cash flow potential.
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Key risks such as weak Chemicals margins, LNG contract roll offs, energy transition pressures, and the strain that high shareholder payouts could place on financial flexibility.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include SHEL.L .
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