Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) reported plans to raise prices for its advanced chip-on-wafer-on-substrate (CoWoS) packaging technology could be a warning sign for Intel (INTC), even as it underscores the strength of the artificial intelligence (AI) chip market. Reports suggest TSMC could increase CoWoS pricing by 10% to 20%, as demand from AI accelerators, server CPUs, and custom chips continues to strain advanced-packaging capacity. TSMC has not independently confirmed the reported increase, but Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson said that, if accurate, the pricing move would indicate that CoWoS is once again becoming a supply-chain "pinch point." More importantly for Intel, Bryson believes higher TSMC pricing could suggest the company is facing less competitive pressure from Intel's EMIB-T advanced-packaging technology.
That interpretation is particularly important because Intel has been positioning EMIB-T as an alternative to TSMC's CoWoS and has been seeking to win advanced-packaging business from AI chip customers. If TSMC can raise prices despite Intel offering an alternative, it suggests customers may still be willing to pay a premium for TSMC's technology, capacity, and ecosystem, potentially making it harder for Intel to use pricing and capacity as a competitive advantage.
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About Intel Stock
Intel is a leading technology company specializing in the design, development, manufacture, and marketing of semiconductor products, including microprocessors, chipsets, graphics processing units (GPUs), memory, and related hardware for consumer, enterprise, and industrial markets. Headquartered in Santa Clara, California, Intel remains a key player in data center, PC, and emerging AI and networking segments. Intel's market cap is around $505 billion, reflecting its valuation among the world's largest semiconductor companies.
Intel stock has delivered a remarkable rally in 2026 despite significant volatility along the way. Shares are up about 158.9% year-to-date (YTD) and roughly 130% over the past year, reflecting a dramatic shift in investor sentiment around the company's turnaround, AI opportunity, and foundry ambitions. However, the stock has also experienced sharp pullbacks after reaching a 52-week high of $142.35 on June 30. Intel is currently 33% below that peak, highlighting how much volatility has accompanied the rally.
More recently, however, INTC has regained momentum ahead of its third-quarter earnings report. Shares climbed 4% on Oct. 26, 3.6% on Oct. 27, and another 1.9% on Oct. 28, closing at $95.53. This advance followed an 8% decline on Oct. 22, amid a broader semiconductor and AI-stock sell-off. Nevertheless, Intel's upcoming earnings are particularly important as investors assess whether improving AI and data-center demand, higher CPU pricing, and progress in its foundry strategy can support the next leg of the recovery. Notably, the news that TSMC might be considering raising prices did not appear to impact the stock negatively.
The stock is currently trading at a premium to its sector median at 83.10 times forward earnings.
Q2 Results Exceeded Consensus Estimates
Intel released second-quarter 2026 results on July 23, reporting its strongest quarterly revenue growth in more than 15 years.
Its revenue rose 25% year-over-year (YOY) to $16.1 billion. The increase was primarily driven by Intel Products revenue, which climbed 28% YOY, including a 59% increase in Data Center and AI (DCAI) revenue and a 13% increase in Client Computing and Platform Group (CCPG) revenue. Intel said higher average selling prices, particularly from a richer mix of premium products, were a key contributor.
Profitability also improved substantially. Its non-GAAP gross margin rose to 41.8% from 29.7%, while non-GAAP operating margin increased to 17.2% from negative 3.9%. Intel generated $7.0 billion in operating cash flow during the quarter.
While GAAP results remained distorted by significant charges, on an adjusted basis, Intel swung to non-GAAP net income of $2.2 billion, or $0.42 per share, from a $0.4 billion loss, or $0.10 per share, a year earlier and exceeding guidance.
Intel issued stronger-than-expected guidance for the September quarter. The company expects Q3 revenue of $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $0.38.
Intel also increased its expected 2026 capital spending to about $20 billion, reflecting stronger demand and the need to expand manufacturing capacity. Management said it expects investment to increase meaningfully again in 2027.
In addition, analysts predict EPS to be around $1.05 for fiscal 2026, an improvement of 975% YOY, and to surge again by 39.1% annually to an EPS of $1.46 in fiscal 2027. Also, the consensus EPS estimate of $0.28 for Q3 (about to be reported on Oct. 29 after market close) indicates a 154.6% rise YOY.
What Do Analysts Expect for Intel Stock?
Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson maintained a cautious stance with a "Hold" rating and a $98 price target on Intel on Oct. 27.
On the other hand, New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu upgraded Intel from "Neutral" to "Buy" on Oct. 26 and assigned a $125 price target, making it one of the most bullish recent analyst calls on the stock.
INTC has a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating overall. Of the 46 analysts covering the stock, 13 advise a "Strong Buy," one recommends a "Moderate Buy," 31 analysts are on the sidelines, giving it a "Hold" rating, and one suggests a "Strong Sell."
INTC's average analyst price target of $113.90 indicates a 19.2% upside, while the Street-high target price of $200 suggests that the stock could rally 109.4%.
On the date of publication, Subhasree Kar did not directly have a position in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
