Elections don’t typically have a marked impact on shoppers’ spending, but consumer sentiment surrounding the results of political races does often demonstrate fluctuations. That trend holds true for the upcoming face-off between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump .
More than half (51 percent) of Americans said they aren’t fazed by the forthcoming presidential election’s impact on their finances, according to newly released data from Ipsos—and more than one-third agree that the results won’t even impact the economy.
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But those feelings dissipate when voters consider the possibility that their favored candidate might not win.
Three out of five shoppers—61 percent—believe that their personal economic situation will face negative impacts if their party’s nominee loses. Those feelings run deeper on one side of the political spectrum: a whopping 76 percent of Republican respondents expressed anxieties about their finances should the Republican nominee lose the race, compared to 60 percent of Democrats and 48 percent of independents who said the same about their own preferred candidate.
Republicans are also more apt to tighten their purse strings in the lead-up to election day on Nov. 5, with 55 percent saying they’re reining in spending. That’s slightly above the 53 percent of independent voters who said the same, and significantly more than the 39 percent of Democrats who said they were cutting back. More than half (52 percent) of Republicans also said they’re looking to “save more due to the uncertainty of the time period leading up to the election,” while 45 percent of independents and 42 percent of Democrats said the same.
Out of all respondents surveyed, Democrats (60 percent) were the most likely to say that the election has no impact on their spending. Independents (58 percent) answered similarly, while just 40 percent of Republicans said they’d maintain current spending patterns in light of the presidential race.
And while, on the whole, most voters believe the election’s results won’t change the trajectory of the economy, Republicans (22 percent) are less likely to subscribe to that thinking than Democrats (36 percent) or independents (53 percent).
“Generally, there’s not a lot of evidence that elections change spending too much. Consumer confidence tends to pause in periods around elections, but given America’s generally low voter turn-out, many aren’t phased by elections one way or another,” wrote Matt Carmichael, head of the Ipsos Trends and Foresight Lab. Carmichael questioned whether this year’s race is different, or whether respondents are simply overestimating its impact on their behaviors.
“The 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is not likely to have an immediate, widespread impact on consumer behaviors,” wrote analysts at consumer insights and data analytics firm Numerator. “The more probable consumer impacts will be longer-term, stemming from the economic, social and environmental policies enacted by the new president and his or her administration.”
According to the group’s consumer sentiment tracker, consumer confidence actually rose slightly in September, with shoppers displaying increased levels of comfort across metrics like household finances, the job market and spending comfort.
“Households reported small increases in confidence in their ability to make ends meet and with non-essential spending,” the group’s analysts wrote. Nearly two-fifths (38 percent) of consumers think it’s very easy or somewhat easy to find a job in the current market, in keeping with last month and the same period in 2023. The number of shoppers who believe it’s somewhat or very difficult (29 percent) decreased month over month.
Meanwhile, almost half (48 percent) of survey respondents expressed confidence in their household’s financial situation, calling it “good” or “very good.” That number is in line with the month-ago period, though the number that said their finances were poor or very poor (17 percent) decreased.
The most notable metric for retail is the spending comfort score, which showed that 40 percent of consumers are very or somewhat comfortable making discretionary purchases at the moment—down slightly from August. But the number of shoppers who said they were somewhat or very uncomfortable (31 percent) also decreased, with more respondents expressing a neutral outlook on spending comfort.
“Overall sentiment is down slightly compared to this time last year, and job market confidence is down 3 points,” Numerator analysts wrote.
According to the firm’s assessment of the seven-day lead-ups to the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, “the only categories that saw clear, consistent boosts were seasonal products like Halloween candy and Thanksgiving decorations,” and no other categories saw significant bumps in interest from shoppers. The same is likely to hold true this year, analysts believe. They wrote that “the election itself will not be a key driver of consumer spending in any specific, predictable areas.”
Instead, Numerator believes it will be the policy changes that come with an incoming administration that ultimately impact American consumers, and it could take months to see any changes come to fruition.
In the meantime, the group advised that brands should be aware of the issues weighing on shoppers’ minds.
“Rising prices have consistently ranked as one of the top issues for voters in this election. While both candidates have stated their intent to bring down prices, inflation is a complex issue, and it is not entirely in the president’s control to fix,” analysts wrote. Taxes, tariffs and the burgeoning focus on U.S. industry could all “contribute to or combat” inflation.
