Yahoo

Nvidia: Why markets may shrug off chipmaker's Q4 results

Trade NVIDIA on Coinbase

Nvidia ( NVDA ) is set to release its fourth quarter earnings on Wednesday, February 26, but the semiconductor giant's results may not carry the same market-moving weight they once did.

Yahoo Finance host Julie Hyman examines why Nvidia's reports might be losing their market ( ^DJI , ^IXIC , ^GSPC ) impact and what this shift could signal for future market trends.

To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Wealth here .

This post was written by Angel Smith

00:00 Brad Smith

Nvidia's fourth quarter earnings are on deck, but the results may not be as important as they've been in the past. Yahoo Finance's Julie Hyman is here now with a closer look at what they mean for the broader market, hey Julie.

00:13 Julie Hyman

Hey Brad, thank you. Well, part of this is just because of the action that we have seen this year thus far where the contribution of the magnificent seven, including Nvidia, has really fallen relative to the rest of the market. That's in part because of underperformance of those names and in part because of the broadening of the types of stocks that are doing better. This long awaited broadening that a lot of investors have been calling for for a while. So Yahoo Finance crunched the numbers. This is as of Wednesday's close, so we might have seen some tweaking since then in terms of the biggest contributors to the rally this year in terms of the market cap gains. Now last year it was Nvidia unquestionably, and all of the others were members of the Magnificent seven. Apple, Amazon, meta alphabet in terms of their size and the magnitude of the gains, they contributed the most to the S&P 500's gains. In fact, for the magnificent seven all together collectively contributed more than 50% of the gains for the S&P 500 last year. This year, it's a very different story. Yes, meta is still number one at around 13%. Nvidia is at number two. We'll get to its percentage in a moment, but then you got Walmart at number three, you got JP Morgan Chase at number four. Eli Lilly is on the top 10 as well. So it is a more diverse beyond Big Tech list of stocks that's doing well for Nvidia specifically. Last year it accounted for 20%, just Nvidia alone of the gains in the S&P 500. This year, it's a little more than 5%. So it's not that Nvidia is not important. It's just on a relative basis. It's less important. Just another way to slice and dice this to look at the broadening trend that we have seen is to look at the S&P 500 year to date, which is market cap weighted. That is companies like Nvidia and Apple have a bigger waiting, a bigger influence. And then if you equal weight it, look at the year to date, it's pretty much neck and neck. There was a big gap between these two last year. So just again gives you an idea of the closing of that gap that we've seen. So that's part of it, and then part of it is also just that Nvidia is not wowing us quite to the same extent that it was when it first began wowing us as it was first catching fire with the demand for generative AI chips, right? So if you look at the company's revenue trajectory, really started taking off in 2023 and its reports then and we were seeing triple digit gains. The revenue gains by the way, peaking right around 260% here, and that was, um if you look at the the quarter when that happened, that would have been its fourth quarter um of 2024, fiscal fourth quarter of 2024. It's on a bit of a different calendar. Now, the estimate when it's coming out with its numbers next week is for revenue of $38.26 billion. That's still a 73% gain. It's all relative, right? It's still a 73% gain, which is a big gain. It's just not sort of the heady huge triple digit gains that we had seen from Nvidia in the past, and you know, we did see Nvidia fall a couple of quarters ago when it reported. Last quarter, the stock was a little changed, so we'll see what kind of halo and ripple effect it has this time around. Again, it's not that Nvidia isn't important. It's just that it it has become less important as we get this broadening and then finally just want to take a look at the stock action in Nvidia if we could get it to come up, uh the stock action in Nvidia that we have seen year to date here. So here's Nvidia, the stock is up about 3.3% year to date here. Here's today's action. You know, so it is higher year to date, but it's record high was back on January 6th and it has not reattained it since that date. So again, just something to put things in perspective as we await those earnings after the close next Wednesday, Brad.

07:56 Brad Smith

I've got my kitchen timer set. It's on the max numbers that I can put it on for that countdown. Thanks so much, Julie.

Mobilize your Website
View Site in Mobile | Classic
Share by: