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Q1 earnings and reiterated 2026 guidance draw investor attention

Velo3D (VELO) attracted investor attention after reporting first quarter 2026 results and reaffirming its full-year revenue guidance of US$60 million to US$70 million, keeping the focus on how the business is tracking.

See our latest analysis for Velo3D.

Velo3D’s share price has surged recently, with a 1-day share price return of 49.43% and a 90-day share price return of 88.77%. However, the 1-year total shareholder return of 125.91% contrasts sharply with a 3-year total shareholder return that declined 97.69%, highlighting how momentum has picked up only in the short term.

If earnings and guidance updates have you looking beyond a single stock, this could be a useful moment to scan the market for other opportunities using our 31 robotics and automation stocks

With revenue guidance holding steady and the stock trading only about 7% below the latest analyst price target, the key question is whether recent momentum leaves upside on the table or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 17% Overvalued

At a last close of $21.01 versus a narrative fair value of $18.00, the most followed storyline currently sees Velo3D trading ahead of its implied worth, with that view built on detailed assumptions about growth, margins and funding.

Although the shift toward onshore, digitally certified manufacturing and national industrial resilience is supporting demand for Velo3D's RPS platform, any slowdown or re-prioritization in defense and space programs could limit backlog conversion into sustained revenue growth and delay the path to earnings improvement.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what has to happen for that fair value to add up? Revenue climbing quickly, margins swinging closer to industry levels and a rich future earnings multiple all sit at the core of this narrative, and the exact mix of those inputs is what investors may want to examine more closely.

Result: Fair Value of $18 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, if defense and space programs are delayed or government funding is disrupted, the timing of orders and progress on margins could change, challenging the current overvaluation story.

Find out about the key risks to this Velo3D narrative.

Next Steps

With sentiment clearly split between risk and reward, this is a good time to move quickly, review the underlying data, and decide where you stand using our breakdown of 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs