Shareholders of Axogen, Inc.( NASDAQ:AXGN ) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 12% to US$41.77 following its latest first-quarter results. It looks like a positive result overall, with revenues of US$61m beating forecasts by 6.4%. Statutory losses of US$0.38 per share were roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
After the latest results, the nine analysts covering Axogen are now predicting revenues of US$270.9m in 2026. If met, this would reflect a decent 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 35% to US$0.39. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$265.9m and US$0.38 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Axogen after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts held their revenue numbers steady, they also administered a pronounced increase to per-share loss expectations.
See our latest analysis for Axogen
Although the analysts are now forecasting higher losses, the average price target rose 23% to 41.22222, which could indicate that these losses are expected to be "one-off", or are not anticipated to have a longer-term impact on the business. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Axogen at US$55.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$48.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Axogen is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Axogen's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 19% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 14% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.9% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Axogen to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Axogen analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Axogen you should know about.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch
with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
