Gold has had a pretty intense time for the past month, ever since the United States-Israel-Iran conflict began.
But Goldman Sachs is standing by its gold bull thesis , even as the precious metal absorbs one of its sharpest pullbacks in recent memory.
In a note to clients, analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven reiterated their year-end target of $5,400 an ounce, Bloomberg reported on April 2.
They pointed to continued central bank buying and two expected U.S. rate cuts before December as the key drivers of a medium-term recovery.
Related: Gold Surges Past $5,340 as US-Israel Strikes on Iran
Gold and Bitcoin: one month of war-driven volatility
Since the U.S.-Iran conflict erupted in late February 2026, both gold and Bitcoin have traded in sharp, sentiment-driven swings.
After the initial highs, gold has shed 6.60% in the past month as equity liquidations and tighter monetary policy expectations weighed on positioning.
At press time, one ounce of gold was trading at $4,676.55 after a 2.2% drop in the past 24 hours and over 16% drop from its all-time high of $5,608, which it reached in January 2026.
Bitcoin has mirrored the risk-off mood, declining alongside equities as institutional investors reduced exposure to volatile assets. However, it has shown signs of more resilience than gold in certain moments.
In the past month, Bitcoin has dropped only 1.8% and has been range-bound between $60,000 and $70,000, with occasional movements above the latter.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 2.4% and trading near $66,852.50, as per CoinGecko. But it is also a 46.9% drop from its all-time high of $126,000 from October 2025.
More News:
The bullish case is intact but bruised
Goldman Sachs ' confidence rests on sustained demand. Goldman expects central bank purchases to average around 60 tons a month once price volatility moderates. This would provide a structural floor that has underpinned gold's multi-year rally.
But the near-term picture is slightly darker.
Goldman flagged "tactical downside risks," warning that gold could fall as low as $3,800 an ounce if the energy supply shock stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict continues to worsen.
This would be about an 19% drop in price at the current levels.
The bank also addressed fears that some central banks might liquidate gold reserves to defend their currencies, a concern that has circulated since the war began. Goldman dismissed it, adding that Gulf nations are far more likely to sell U.S. Treasuries , given that they predominantly operate dollar pegs.
On the upside, the analysts noted that an acceleration in diversification away from traditional Western assets driven by the geopolitical climate could push gold significantly beyond their base case target.
Related: Gold giant becomes major buyer of U.S. debt
This story was originally published by TheStreet on Apr 2, 2026, where it first appeared in the MARKETS section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
