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The analyst fair value estimate for Magnolia Oil & Gas has shifted from US$28.61 to US$32.21, putting the stock closer to the low to mid US$30s range seen in recent Street price targets. This change lines up with a wave of updated research that ties Magnolia’s outlook to revised oil price decks, reserve disclosures, and differing views on geopolitical risk. As you read on, you will see how these moving parts shape the story you are following and what to watch as the narrative evolves.
Stay updated as the Fair Value for Magnolia Oil & Gas shifts by adding it to your watchlist or portfolio . Alternatively, explore our Community to discover new perspectives on Magnolia Oil & Gas.
What Wall Street Has Been Saying
🐂 Bullish Takeaways
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Several firms, including UBS, BofA, Mizuho, Piper Sandler, Citi, Wells Fargo, BMO Capital, Clear Street, JPMorgan and KeyBanc, have lifted Magnolia Oil & Gas price targets, bringing Street assumptions closer to the low to mid US$30s range referenced in recent research.
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UBS, BofA, Mizuho and Piper Sandler explicitly link higher targets to richer 2026 oil price decks and expectations for tighter supply conditions tied to conflict in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. These feed into higher cash flow assumptions for oil and gas producers.
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Clear Street cites Magnolia’s 11% higher proved developed producing reserves as a support for a higher valuation. BMO Capital highlights the Eagle Ford and Giddings positions, low costs and modest leverage as positives for long term execution.
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Wells Fargo points to “solid” Q4 results and in line 2026 guidance, using updated year end 2025 proved reserves disclosure in its higher target. This supports the case that the current model can be sustained under the revised price decks.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
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Siebert Williams moved to a Hold rating, and firms such as Piper Sandler and Citi keep Neutral or Equal Weight views even with higher targets. This signals that some analysts see the current valuation as already reflecting improved oil assumptions and reserve data.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there's more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!
We've flagged 1 risk for Magnolia Oil & Gas. See which could impact your investment.
What's in the News
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Magnolia issued first quarter 2026 production guidance of about 102 Mboe/d, including around 1.5 Mboe/d of winter storm downtime that has already been restored.
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Between October 1 and December 31, 2025, Magnolia repurchased 2,360,000 shares for US$53.42 million, bringing total buybacks under its August 6, 2019 program to 49,476,869 shares for US$965.18 million.
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On February 5, 2026, Magnolia increased its equity buyback authorization by 10,000,000 shares, lifting total authorization to 60,000,000 shares.
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For the fourth quarter of 2025, Magnolia reported average daily production of 103.8 Mboe/d, with full year 2025 average daily production of 99.8 Mboe/d, and announced a quarterly dividend of US$0.165 per share, at an annualized rate of US$0.66.
How This Changes the Fair Value For Magnolia Oil & Gas
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Fair value estimate increased from US$28.61 to US$32.21, a rise of roughly 13%.
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Forecast revenue growth adjusted from 7.57% to about 7.84%.
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Expected net profit margin updated from 28.30% to about 28.05%.
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Future P/E multiple raised from 12.36x to about 13.93x.
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Discount rate assumption remains at 6.978%.
Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative
Narratives connect Magnolia Oil & Gas’s operating story, analyst forecasts, and fair value into one clear view of what is driving the numbers. They refresh as new data, estimates, and commentary come through, so you can keep your thesis aligned with the latest information.
Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on Magnolia Oil & Gas to stay up to date on:
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How low cost bolt on acquisitions and appraisal work in Giddings are extending Magnolia’s high return inventory and supporting revenue visibility.
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Why capital discipline, lower reinvestment rates, and ongoing buybacks and dividends are central to the company’s cash flow story.
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Key risks such as geographic concentration in Eagle Ford and Giddings, full commodity price exposure due to being unhedged, and longer term energy transition and ESG pressures.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include MGY .
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