President Donald Trump’s return to the White House has already left a decisive imprint on global markets. In the first 100 days of his second term, spanning January 20 through April 30, 2025, financial assets responded sharply to an assertive policy stance on trade and regulation and the resulting macroeconomic uncertainty. For market participants, three of our benchmark data sets in particular offer critical insight into shifting investor sentiment: EBS’ EUR/USD, BrokerTec U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and CVOL index on Treasury futures, known as TYYV.
EUR/USD: Currency shifts reflect changing global sentiment
The euro surged nearly 10.2% against the U.S. dollar during the first 100 days, with EUR/USD rising from around 1.09 to over 1.20 by late April. This move reflects not only dollar weakness but also relative confidence in the eurozone’s political and economic posture. Investors fled the greenback as the Trump administration introduced a series of trade-related measures on Chinese and European goods, raising fears of a global trade war and denting demand for U.S. assets.
The dollar’s rapid depreciation points to a loss of confidence in the U.S. macro framework. With the administration’s fiscal and trade policies introducing more questions than answers, the euro became a relative safe harbor during the administration’s first 100 days.
10-Year Treasury yields: A volatility-driven whipsaw
U.S. Treasury yields exhibited an unusually sharp two-way move, tracing investor uncertainty. The 10-year BrokerTec 3:00 p.m. benchmark yield fell from 4.62% to as low as 3.86% by early April, as safe-haven demand surged. The yield then rebounded to 4.37% by April 30, driven by fears that tariffs would stoke inflation, pushing the Federal Reserve into a policy bind.
That yield path—an initial 75 basis point drop followed by a 50 basis point rebound—marks one of the most volatile opening stretches for a presidency in decades. For traders and strategists, this underlines the return of regime volatility in fixed income markets. Directionally, the Treasury market was torn between stagflationary fears and haven demand—an uncomfortable and unstable equilibrium.
TYVY: Implied volatility spikes to decade highs
Nowhere was that volatility more clearly quantified than in our Treasury CVOL index (TYVY). This forward-looking measure of implied volatility in 10-Year Treasury Note (ZN) futures surged to the 99th percentile of its 10-year historical distribution, reflecting market stress not seen since the Silicon Valley Bank and COVID-era dislocations.
For market participants, monitoring TYVY alongside Treasury yields can be a powerful barometer of uncertainty premiums. Elevated implied vol also creates opportunities in option markets—whether for structured hedging or relative value.
Unlike traditional measures that overweight at-the-money options, TYVY uses a variance-weighted methodology to capture implied volatility across the entire curve. This offers a holistic picture of market sentiment—particularly valuable in moments of structural uncertainty like the early stages of this administration.
What to watch going forward
These three metrics—EUR/USD, 10-year Treasury yields and TYVY—should be core components of any macro or rates-focused trading dashboard in 2025. They reflect currency confidence, inflation expectations and the market’s perception of tail risks. As policy from Washington continues to drive volatility, traders and investors must stay agile, using these indicators as both early-warning signals and tactical opportunity screens.
Whether you're running a cross-asset book, trading duration or pricing options, the message is clear: this is not the post-COVID steady state. Risk is back—and it's being repriced fast.
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