• In the first quarter of 2026, Moderna reported revenue of US$389 million versus US$108 million a year earlier, while net loss widened to US$1.34 billion, largely reflecting a US$950 million litigation settlement, and the company also secured European approvals for several vaccines including mCOMBRIAX, the first flu and COVID-19 combination shot.

• Beyond the headline loss, the quarter highlighted Moderna’s growing reliance on international government partnerships, especially the U.K. deal, and its push to diversify beyond COVID-19 with new EU-approved vaccines and an expanding oncology pipeline such as the Phase III Intismeran trial.

• We’ll now examine how this combination of stronger international vaccine revenue and new EU approvals could reshape Moderna’s longer-term investment narrative.

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Moderna Investment Narrative Recap

To own Moderna today, you need to believe its mRNA platform and expanding vaccine and oncology portfolio can eventually support more durable, less COVID-dependent revenue, despite ongoing losses. The latest quarter reinforces that the key near term catalyst is execution on new product launches and late stage readouts, while the biggest risk remains revenue volatility and legal overhangs rather than this specific litigation charge, which is large but already defined and therefore not a continuing surprise.

Among the recent announcements, the European approval of mCOMBRIAX, the first flu and COVID-19 combination shot, feels most relevant. It underscores Moderna’s push to broaden its respiratory franchise beyond seasonal single-agent boosters, which ties directly into the catalyst of building a more diversified vaccine base. At the same time, it sits against unresolved legal tail risks and ongoing questions about pricing power and demand across respiratory vaccines.

Yet behind the promise of new EU-approved vaccines, investors should still be aware of the unresolved legal tail risk and potential extra payments that...

Read the full narrative on Moderna (it's free!)

Moderna's narrative projects $3.2 billion revenue and $407.1 million earnings by 2029.

Uncover how Moderna's forecasts yield a $46.10 fair value , in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest ranked analysts were assuming only about 6 percent annual revenue growth to roughly US$2.3 billion by 2029, and see legal setbacks and weaker pricing power as key risks, so this surprisingly strong Q1 and new EU approvals could push you to rethink whether that more pessimistic view still fits or if the truth lies somewhere in between.