Federal Reserve on Wednesday, uh what appears to very likely be Jay Powell's last press conference as Fed chair. Uh news breaking Friday and then over the weekend a little more clarity on it seems like the Senate potentially going to get a vote on Kevin Warsh's uh nomination to be Fed chair to the floor on Wednesday. Um given that the news we had Friday about the DOJ dropping its investigation into Powell and the renovation of the Marriner Eccles building.

Tom Tillis says he will vote for Kevin Warsh. It seems like that will go through. And so we will get a couple days here to uh reminisce on the Powell era.

Yeah. I mean, do you have any early thoughts?

I mean it's kind of I mean I don't think No, I mean I was going to say he's he's a he's a nominated official reminisce. That's like, you know, something you do in your free time. He's just a guy who made some decisions. Um, now it was a lot of interesting things happened. We will have time to retro the Powell era, I think. But there are uh many

Yes.

many things that you will not forget including multiple Sunday press conferences, which is not really a thing any Fed chair. Janet Yellen had zero Sunday press conferences in her four years in office. Jay Powell had multiple different instances in which he had to have a Sunday press conference. Um, one we may have forgotten, Silicon Valley Bank.

Oh, yeah.

Only three years ago. No, that was a

Yes. No, it seems like a long time ago.

That was a Sunday nighter. So,

I mean, so we'll look back at the Powell era, we will look ahead perhaps to the Warsh era for sure. I'm curious about some of the questions that Powell's going I mean obviously he'll be asked

To the Warsh era, for sure.

if he's going to stick around.

Yeah. If he'll remain on the board of governors. Yep.

You could potentially still stick around, not as chair, but as a member of the committee. Um, so that's a question. I'm curious what he thinks of some of the reforms that Warsh has talked about in his um confirmation hearing and elsewhere. getting rid of the dot plot, for example, um shrinking the Fed's balance sheet, for example. Um, we'll see if if Jay entertains any of those questions.

That term is 2028.

Yep.

He's uh one of the things I've enjoyed about him is him shutting down certain questions about what's going on politically.

Yes. He's a lawyer by trade.

Yes.

Um he's skilled in that area. Yes.

He is skilled. He is skilled. He just says, nope, not going to talk about it. So we'll see what he's willing to talk about on Wednesday.

And I I think it's, you know, maybe something we have not discussed enough in the context of the market, you know, kind of going higher every day is with more clarity around Warsh taking that seat, you know, there's there's a not insignificant part of the market that can now say, oh, the path to maybe a rate cut this year is back on, whereas when you're not looking at Powell leaving that chair and and, you know, serving in some of a pro-tem status, which again, seems like it's not going to happen now. Um, that just in general was a more hawkish tilt. So, a little bit of a help for the stock market there, I think as well, if Kevin Warsh does indeed take that seat, um, you know, in the middle of May and so then the next Fed meeting in the middle of June will be Kevin Warsh's to lead.

Yeah, I mean, rates have have sort of crept up, yields have crept up on 10-year Treasuries, um, over, you know, as we've seen stocks rally back yields have come up as well, but we'll I guess we'll be watching the bond market to see kind of what happens there, but they've really been if you look where we were last August, they really are in the same spot they were then. So, we'll be watching that to see if that changes.

Yep. Yep.